Tesla's Day of Reckoning: Musk Pay Package & xAI Vote Loom

Tesla Shareholder Meeting: Musk Pay & xAI Vote Loom

Thursday, November 6^th, 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most important days in Tesla (TSLA) company history. Over the past few years, Tesla shares have taken shareholders on a rollercoaster ride, diving from nearly $500 in late 2024 to a low of ~$214 earlier this year. In that time Tesla shareholders have had to endure tariff concerns, political blowback from both sides of the aisle, a slowing EV legacy business, and what some would call in unfocused CEO. However, since April, TSLA shares have climbed the proverbial “Wall of Worry” and marched higher as iconic and controversial CEO Elon Musk stepped away from politics and refocused on Tesla. Additionally, Tesla EV deliveries reached a record high last quarter (though they were likely driven artificially higher by the ending of Federal EV tax credits).

In Thursday’s shareholder meeting, investors will vote on several corporate governance and compensation measures. Based on the options market, the implied move for the stock this week is +/- 6%. In this article, I will breakdown what I expect to be the three most significant and market moving votes.

What are the Odds $1 Trillion Elon Musk Pay Package Pass?

The overwhelmingly most important vote will be Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package. For Musk to unlock the twelve tranches, Tesla will need to reach lofty market capitalization and operational milestones.

Based on betting markets, prominent investor comments, and math, it is highly likely that the provision passes. At the time of this writing, PolyMarket and Kalshi, the two most followed prediction markets, have the odds that the pay package will be passed at 94% and 91% respectively.

Meanwhile, large and prominent Tesla shareholders like Cathie Wood, Michael Dell, and T. Rowe Price have already pledged to vote in favor of Musk. Additionally, Musk will be able to vote his own shares which comprise roughly 13.5% of the voting shares. Finally, retail investors comprise roughly 40-45% of the vote, a group that has proven to be overwhelmingly loyal to Musk in previous votes.

Tesla xAI Vote Looms

xAI is an artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk in 2023. Although xAI was founded recently, its market cap has already ballooned to $200 billion, driven by hopes that Musk can replicate the success he created with ChatGPT owner OpenAI. Tesla shareholders will vote on a potential investment in the AI startup (Musk has suggested a $5 billion investment). The xAi vote is critical for Tesla as it will provide shareholders an opportunity to invest in a high-growth industry. Additionally, as Tesla diversifies away from its slowing legacy EV business, AI synergies will be critical as the company breaks into new areas like the humanoid robot (Optimus) and robotaxi businesses.

Tesla Shareholders to Vote on Directors

Lastly, Tesla shareholders will vote on the re-election of key directors. Critics suggest that Musk-friendly directors like Joe Gebbia mean little independence from the board. Meanwhile, if the current directors are reelected it will mean Musk will retain his power stranglehold on the company.

Bottom Line

Betting markets, prominent shareholder comments, and math suggest that the $1 trillion pay package is highly likely to be approved. However, shareholders will want to watch the director and xAI votes closely.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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