Can Humana Beat Q3 Earnings Estimates on Growing Premiums?

Humana Inc. HUM is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 5, 2025, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $2.91 per shareon revenues of $31.98 billion.

The third-quarter earnings estimate has increased by a penny over the past 60 days. However, the bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decrease of 30.1%. Yet, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 9.1%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humana’s revenues is pegged at $128.21 billion, implying a rise of 9.4% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for the current year EPS is pegged at $17.05, implying a gain of around 5.2% on a year-over-year basis.

HUM’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 9.6%.

Humana Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Humana Inc. price-eps-surprise | Humana Inc. Quote

Q3 Earnings Whispers for HUM

Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here.

Humana has an Earnings ESP of +4.29% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping HUM’s Q3 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HUM’s third-quarter premiums indicates an 8.6% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure, whereas our model predicts 8.2% growth. We expect total Medicare to witness nearly 6% growth in the quarter under review. Similarly, the consensus mark for service revenues signals a 25.6% increase from a year ago. These are expected to have positioned the company for an earnings beat in the third quarter.

However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for operating income from the Insurance unit indicates a 1.9% decline from a year ago. The same for the CenterWell unit predicts a 2% decrease from the year-ago level.

Furthermore, the consensus estimate indicates that Humana’s investment income will see a 21% drop from the year-ago level. We expect total operating costs to increase 8.7% in the third quarter, pushing the figure above $31 billion. This is likely to have led to a year-over-year decline in the bottom line.

The consensus mark for the overall benefits expense ratio is pegged at 90.86% for the to-be-reported quarter, deteriorating from 89.9% a year ago. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for insurance membership suggests a 7.1% year-over-year decline, whereas specialty membership is expected to grow 1.3%.

How Did Peers Perform?

Several healthcare companies, including Centene Corporation CNC, Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH and Elevance Health, Inc. ELV, have already reported their financial results for the September quarter of 2025. Here’s how they had performed:

Centene reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 50 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 21 cents. However, the bottom line fell from the year-ago profit of $1.62 per share.The results benefited from solid premium growth, fueled by expanding membership in the PDP and Commercial Marketplace businesses, along with overall growth in the Marketplace business. However, the upside was partly offset by Centene’s rising medical costs, declining service revenues and year-over-year membership falls in Medicaid and Medicare businesses.

Molina reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.84, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.97. Also, the bottom line fell 69.4% from the year-ago period.The earnings were affected by higher medical care costs and general and administrative expenses. However, Molina’s rising premiums and rate hikes partially offset the negatives.

Elevance reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $6.03, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 21.1%. Yet, the bottom line dropped 29.9% year over year. The results benefited from the back of strong growth in premiums, product revenues and net investment income. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in Elevance’s overall medical membership due to Medicaid reverifications and an elevated expense level.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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