Main Street Set to Release Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Main Street Capital Corporation MAIN is slated to announce third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 6, after market close. The company’s net investment income per share and total investment income are expected to have increased year over year.

In the last reported quarter, net investment income per share met the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The results were supported by an increase in total investment income. However, higher expenses offset these gains.

MAIN has a weak earnings surprise record. Over the past four quarters, Main Street’s earnings fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice, were in line once and missed once.

Main Street Capital Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Main Street Capital Corporation price-eps-surprise | Main Street Capital Corporation Quote

MAIN’s Earnings & Sales Projections for Q3

Per the company’s preliminary results for the third quarter, its earnings are 95-99 cents per share compared with the prior-year quarter $1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MAIN’s earnings is pegged at $1.04, unchanged over the past seven days. The consensus estimate indicates a 4% increase from the prior-year reported figure.

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $140.7 million, which suggests a 2.8% year-over-year rise.

Key Factors to Impact Main Street’s Q3 Performance

MAIN originated $117.3 million in new or increased commitments in its private loan portfolio in the third quarter. These investments were funded with a cost basis of $113.3 million. As of Sept. 30, 2025, its private loan portfolio included total investments at a cost of $1.9 billion. Hence, new and increased private loan commitments and investments in the quarter are anticipated to have aided the company’s top-line growth.

The Federal Reserve reduced rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. This is likely to have supported interest income for Main Street in the quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for interest, fee and dividend income from control investments is pegged at $57.3 million, implying a rise of 14.2% from the prior-year quarter’s actual. The consensus estimate for interest, fee and dividend income from affiliate investments is pegged at $24.7 million, indicating an 18.4% year-over-year rise.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for interest, fee and dividend income from non-control and non-affiliate investments is pegged at $56.9 million, suggesting a decline of 13.4% from the year-earlier quarter.

Per management, net fair value increases on the wholly-owned asset manager and the lower middle market ("LMM") investments from Main Street’s portfolio have led to a net increase in the fair value of the company’s investment portfolio, partially offset by net fair value decreases on the private loan and middle market investment portfolios. This increased net asset value (NAV) per share in the quarter. Management estimates NAV per share in the range of $32.74 and $32.82 as of Sept. 30, 2025.

Given these preliminary results, management estimates generating a quarterly annualized return on equity of more than 16% in the quarter.

Main Street’s expenses are expected to remain elevated in the quarter under review due to a rise in interest costs and compensation.

Earnings Whispers for MAIN

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Main Street this time around. This is because Main Street does not have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Main Street is -1.28%.

Zacks Rank: Main Street carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Performances of MAIN’s Peers

Hercules Capital Inc.’s HTGC shares gained almost 1% in the after-market hours on better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results. The net investment income of 49 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. However, the bottom line declined 3.9% from the year-ago quarter.

HTGC’s results were primarily driven by higher total investment income. Also, the portfolio activity was robust in the quarter. However, an increase in expenses was the undermining factor.

Ares Capital Corporation’s ARCC third-quarter 2025 core earnings of 50 cents per share met the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the bottom line reflected a decline of 13.8% from the prior-year quarter’s actual.

The results were primarily aided by higher total investment income. Also, ARCC’s robust portfolio activities offered some support. However, higher expenses acted as a spoilsport.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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