Wayfair’s third quarter was marked by a strong market response, as the company delivered results that surpassed Wall Street expectations for both revenue and adjusted earnings. Management credited sustained order momentum, execution on cost discipline, and the impact of new programs for driving share gains in a sluggish home goods category. CEO Niraj Shah noted that initiatives like Wayfair Rewards and the company’s technology replatforming were central to profitability improvements and operational agility. While the broader housing market remained subdued, management emphasized that order growth and increased average order value came largely from Wayfair-specific strategies rather than external industry recovery.
Is now the time to buy W? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Wayfair (W) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $3.12 billion vs analyst estimates of $3.01 billion (8.1% year-on-year growth, 3.5% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.70 vs analyst estimates of $0.44 (59.3% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $208 million vs analyst estimates of $163.3 million (6.7% margin, 27.4% beat)
- Operating Margin: 1.2%, up from -2.6% in the same quarter last year
- Active Customers: 21.2 million, down 500,000 year on year
- Market Capitalization: $13.46 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions.
Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated.
Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Wayfair’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Jolie Wasserman (JPMorgan): Asked if shifting the timing of Way Day or tariff concerns impacted holiday shopping behavior. CEO Niraj Shah responded that consumer patterns remain consistent with prior years and saw minimal effect from tariffs.
- Simeon Gutman (Morgan Stanley): Inquired if the business has reached a sustainable mid- to high-single digit growth trajectory. Shah and CFO Kate Gulliver stressed the compounding benefits of technology replatforming and ongoing share gains, noting that growth is increasingly structural.
- Peter Keith (Piper Sandler): Asked about the impact of Amazon’s reduced Google Shopping ads on ad efficiency. Shah explained this had limited effect on Wayfair’s core categories, while Gulliver pointed to increased app usage and onetime ad spend tests as key drivers of lower advertising costs.
- Maria Ripps (Canaccord): Requested more detail on revenue acceleration and higher-end brand performance. Gulliver cited stronger growth from luxury and specialty brands, highlighting that higher-income consumers remain resilient for Wayfair.
- Brian Nagel (Oppenheimer): Asked if the focus on contribution margin signals a shift in financial philosophy. Shah and Gulliver clarified there is no change in philosophy, but a clearer articulation of optimizing multi-quarter EBITDA dollar growth through variable cost management.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will focus on (1) the pace of adoption and impact of new AI-driven customer tools and features, (2) the effectiveness of physical retail store expansion and supplier fulfillment programs in driving incremental growth, and (3) the company’s ability to maintain margin discipline as advertising costs normalize. Continued progress on technology integration and new program scalability will be key indicators of Wayfair’s ability to sustain its competitive edge.
Wayfair currently trades at $103.30, up from $86.48 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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