Sunrun to Release Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Sunrun Inc. RUN is scheduled to release third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 6, after market close. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 694.4% in the last reported quarter. 

Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to be reflected in the upcoming quarterly results.

Factors That Might Have Impacted RUN’s Q3 Performance

In July 2025, Sunrun and Tesla launched a new home energy plan, designed to maximize solar production, battery backup power for outages, and energy independence for customers in Texas. This plan further enhances the appeal of Sunrun’s subscription model, helps in higher customer acquisition and retention, thereby contributing to stronger metrics like Aggregate Subscriber Value and Contracted Net Value Creation (mentioned below). 

The company expects 8% growth in Aggregate Subscriber Value in the third quarter of 2025. This suggests that Sunrun’s entire customer base might have continued to grow and generate more long-term value. Strong customer acquisition, consistent installations, and growing demand for residential solar and storage solutions might have contributed to this increase, which, in turn, must have improved the quarterly top line.

Additionally, the company anticipates a 58% increase in Contracted Net Value Creation, indicating a significant boost in new contract value development and profitability. This is expected to have resulted in improved margins during the quarter.

Solid sales volume for solar energy systems and products, backed by steadily growing solar demand, is expected to have boosted Sunrun’s third-quarter top-line performance.

However, increased expenses due to higher battery hardware and associated installation labor costs from the storage attachment rate increase are likely to have offset some positives in the to-be-reported quarter.

RUN’s Q3 Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at a cent per share, indicating a year-over-year improvement of 102.7%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pinned at $604.92 million, implying a 12.6% increase year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Solar Capacity Installed is pinned at 251.1 megawatts (MW), up 9.3% from the year-ago quarter’s registered figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for subscriber additions is pinned at 32,624, up 7.5% from the year-ago quarter’s registered figure.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Sunrun this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here as you will see below.
 

Sunrun Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Sunrun Inc. price-eps-surprise | Sunrun Inc. Quote

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -4,160.8%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Currently, Sunrun carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Investors may consider the following players from the same sector, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports third-quarter results on Nov. 6. It has an Earnings ESP of +1.55% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter sales is pinned at $6.66 billion, which implies a year-over-year increase of 2.2%. 

Delek US Holdings DK is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports third-quarter results on Nov. 7. It has an Earnings ESP of +98.57% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

DK’s long-term (three to five years) earnings growth rate is 10.45%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at 14 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 109.7%.

Northern Oil and Gas NOG is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports third-quarter results on Nov. 6. It has an Earnings ESP of +1.83% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at 82 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 41.4%.

 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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