Arko's Q3 Earnings on Deck: Key Factors You Should Understand

Arko Corp. (ARKO) is likely to register a decline in the top line when it reports third-quarter 2025 earnings on Nov. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.98 billion, indicating a decrease of 13.1% from the prior-year reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings has been stable in the past 30 days at 12 cents per share, which indicates 71.4% growth from the year-ago quarter. ARKO delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 42.1%, on average.

ARKO Corp. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

ARKO Corp. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | ARKO Corp. Quote

Things to Know About ARKO’s Upcoming Results

ARKO has been navigating a transitional phase marked by persistent macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer behavior across its retail network. On the last earnings call, management indicated that inflation and cautious spending have been continuing to weigh on same-store merchandise sales and retail fuel volumes. These pressures, combined with a smaller company-operated footprint, have been keeping near-term revenues under pressure despite resilient fuel margins.

On its last earnings call, Arko expects third-quarter adjusted EBITDA in the range of $70 million to $80 million compared with $78.8 million recorded in the same period last year. The company has been experiencing normalization in fuel margins and softer same-store trends, while retail fuel margins have been ranging between 42.5 and 44.5 cents per gallon.

Early in the third quarter, ARKO witnessed encouraging signs of stabilization. On the last earnings call, management noted that July same-store sales, excluding cigarettes, were trending slightly higher year over year, marking the best performance in nearly 18 months. Both inside sales and fuel gallons are continuing to improve sequentially, suggesting that targeted promotions and loyalty-led initiatives are gradually setting a firmer tone for the upcoming quarter.

Earnings Whispers for ARKO Stock

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Arko this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Arko has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Some Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Vital Farms (VITL) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.65% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is expected to register growth in both top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter 2025 results. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $191.7 million, which indicates an increase of 32.2% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vital Farms’ quarterly earnings per share of 30 cents implies an increase of 87.5% from 16 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. VITL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 35.8%, on average.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.54% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The consensus mark for Ollie's Bargain’s third-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $615.7 million, which indicates growth of 19% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly EPS is pegged at 71 cents, which implies a 22.4% increase year over year. OLLI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.2%, on average.

The Campbell's Company (CPB) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.49% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to register a decline in both top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2026 results. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $2.67 billion, which indicates a decrease of 3.8% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The Campbell's Company’s quarterly earnings per share of 74 cents implies a decrease of 16.9% from 89 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. CPB delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.2%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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