Canadian Natural to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ is set to release third-quarter results on Nov. 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 54 cents per share on revenues of $6.7 billion.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced CNQ’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of CNQ’s Q2 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the Calgary-based oil and gas equipment and services company beat the consensus mark, but decreased from 64 cents in the year-ago quarter due to lower realized oil and natural gas liquid prices. CNQ reported adjusted earnings per share of 51 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents. Total revenues of $6.3 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $5 million. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice in the trailing four quarters and missed in one, delivering an average surprise of 7.1%. This is depicted in the chart below:

Canadian Natural Resources Limited Price and EPS Surprise

Canadian Natural Resources Limited price-eps-surprise | Canadian Natural Resources Limited Quote

Trend in CNQ’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has not witnessed any movement in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 23.9% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues implies a 2.2% increase from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider Ahead of CNQ’s Q3 Results

In July 2025, Canadian Naturals’ Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading production increased considerably, with upgrader utilization of 106%, and the company expects the second half of 2025 to continue to deliver strong operating results. During the third quarter, CNQ closed an acquisition of liquids-rich Montney assets located in the Grand Prairie area and the acquired assets are expected to have provided opportunities for synergies and further add to the production volumes. CNQ’s revenues are likely to have improved in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts third-quarter revenues to increase from the year-ago quarter’s $6.5 billion.

On a bearish note, Canadian Natural is set to face debt maturities each year out till 2027, exposing it to refinancing risk at a time of unpredictable commodity prices. Additionally, the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter of the company may get affected due to the rising expenses in the North Sea, Offshore Africa and Oil Sands Mining segments. Our model predicts third-quarter North Sea expenses to rise to $176.9 million from the year-ago quarter’s level of $137 million. The Offshore Africa expenses are anticipated to have increased sequentially to $144.1 million from the previous quarter’s level of $23 million. The Oil Sands Mining expenses are expected to have increased to $2,520.7 million from the year-ago level of $2,306 million.

What Does Our Model Predict for CNQ?

Our proven Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for CNQ this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.

Earnings ESP of CNQ: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +1.55%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

CNQ’s Zacks Rank: CNQ currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some other firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. NOG currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.83% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

NOG is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 6. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Northern Oil and Gas’ 2025 revenues indicates 4% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $2.2 billion, the company’s shares have lost 39.1% in a year.

Delek US Holdings, Inc. DK has an Earnings ESP of +98.57% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. DK is slated to release earnings on Nov. 7.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Delek US Holdings’ 2025 earnings per share indicates 36.4% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $2.3 billion, the company’s shares have soared 145.1% in a year.

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. GRNT currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.70% and a Zacks Rank of 3. It is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 6.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Granite Ridge’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 8.8% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $693 million, the company’s shares have lost 10.9% in a year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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