3 Potential Scenarios to Watch for in D-Wave's Earnings Report

Shares of quantum computing firm D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) skyrocketed by 244% so far in 2025 on a great deal of hype and an even heftier volume of speculation. Though shares have cooled in the last month, dropping by about 5.5% in the 30 days leading to Nov. 3, investors have still jumped at hints of success for the firm—including rumors that the federal government may be considering taking equity positions in D-Wave and other quantum firms, for example, or news that the company made an important sale in Europe.

For many investors trying to gauge how a promising tech name that continues to chase profitability is living up to its potential, the proof will be in the earnings. D-Wave is set to report third-quarter earnings on Nov. 6, following mixed Q2 results that featured strong revenue and a solid cash position but wider-than-expected losses. Here are three key scenarios investors should watch in the upcoming report.

Big Win: Confirming Revenue Growth and Path to Profitability

The key results that many investors are hoping for when D-Wave reports earnings is a continuation of its upward trajectory when it comes to revenue and the emergence of a clear path to sustained profitability. After last quarter's 42% year-over-year revenue increase, the first part of this goal seems within reach—after all, D-Wave's Advantage2 system has continued to draw interest. Perhaps even better than individual sales of major quantum systems would be signs that D-Wave is building a growing recurring revenue profile through its cloud-based service. While Advantage2 sales have provided a hefty revenue boost, they are relatively infrequent and focused primarily on large-scale organizations and government clients.

The second aspect of this scenario may be less likely, at least for the near-term, while quantum tech is still evolving at a rapid pace and the industry is finding its footing. Broad marketability might help D-Wave to achieve its profitability goals, so the announcement of a major technological development that would help to further distinguish this company from its competitors—and to draw a wider customer base—would be a major boon. The announcement of a major acquisition that could be immediately accretive might also be possible, given D-Wave's strong cash reserves as of mid-year.

Neutral: Slow and Steady Progress, But Nothing to Fuel (or Dispel) the Hype

One of the more likely scenarios for D-Wave's earnings report is, essentially, more of the same. The company has been notching tech developments through regular press releases, and sales of its Advantage2 system are still infrequent enough that it announces many of these as well. So it is not inconceivable that there may be relatively little of note in terms of technological or business developments in an earnings report.

On one hand, continuing the growth of D-Wave's revenue and the progress of the company's R&D would be a benefit. However, D-Wave's massive rally so far this year—and its price-to-sales ratio of nearly 1,300—demand firmer evidence of its financial success and its increasing marketability in order to maintain the hype. Without a big win in one of these categories, QBTS shares may deflate somewhat as investors grow tired of waiting for a breakout moment.

Setback: Tech-Related, Regarding Competition, Or Otherwise

If the pace of revenue growth appears to slow, this could also be troublesome for D-Wave. Given how greatly the firm has relied on sales of Advantage2, any perceived setback to this product line may be disastrous. A hurdle could also take the form of a technological challenge: D-Wave's focus has been on annealing technology, and while the company has made important breakthroughs that suggest annealing may be more broadly marketable than skeptics originally estimated, this is anything but a sure thing for the company's future business success.

Even a delay or a plateau in tech-related achievements could be challenging for D-Wave, particularly given how competitive the quantum space is. Companies that are not constantly impressing with innovations are likely to get left behind. Some of D-Wave's greatest challenges are likely to come not from its own performance, but from the threat its quantum rivals pose.

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The article "3 Potential Scenarios to Watch for in D-Wave's Earnings Report" first appeared on MarketBeat.