What to Expect From Camden Property Stock in Q3 Earnings?

Camden Property Trust CPT is slated to report third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 6, after market close. The company’s quarterly results are likely to witness a year-over-year rise in revenues, though funds from operations (FFO) per share might display a decline.

In the last reported quarter, this residential real estate investment trust (REIT) reported FFO per share of $1.70, delivering a surprise of 0.59%. Results reflected higher same-property net operating income (NOI) and improved occupancy, though lower effective new lease rates partly marred the growth tempo.

In the preceding four quarters, CPT’s FFO per share outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate on all occasions, with the average beat being 1.94%. The graph below depicts this surprise history:

Camden Property Trust Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Camden Property Trust price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Camden Property Trust Quote

In this article, we will dive deep into the U.S. apartment market environment and the company's fundamentals and analyze the factors that may have contributed to its third-quarter 2025 performance.

US Apartment Market in Q3

After two years of robust growth, the U.S. apartment market has finally hit a pause, with rent growth slipping into negative territory in the third quarter of 2025. According to RealPage data, effective asking rents fell 0.3% between July and September, the first rent cut between July and September since 2009. In the year-ending third quarter, rents slipped 0.1%. The slowdown reflects a cooling economy.

About 637,000 market-rate apartments were absorbed in the year-ending third quarter of 2025. While still healthy by long-term standards, it is a clear step down from the record nearly 784,900 units absorbed in the year-ending second quarter of 2025. “Sluggish new lease activity” is the culprit, said RealPage Chief Economist Carl Whitaker, pointing to weaker job growth and more cautious consumer behavior as key factors behind the shift against an uncertain economic backdrop.

While demand cooled, construction of roughly 474,800 units was completed nationwide over the past year, including 105,500 in the third quarter alone. That’s below last year’s peak but still well above normal supply levels. With so many new units hitting the market, landlords have had to compete harder to fill vacancies. Occupancy slipped to 95.4% in the quarter, down 30 basis points and ending five consecutive quarters of gains.

To attract renters, concessions became more common, with 22% of properties offering discounts averaging 6.2%. Operators are increasingly prioritizing occupancy over pricing power, suggesting rent softness may persist until concessions taper off. Interestingly, resident retention rose year over year, as renters chose to stay put amid economic uncertainty.

The rent cuts haven’t hit every region equally. Markets that built aggressively during the boom, especially across the South and West, are seeing the steepest declines. Rents dropped nearly 8% in Denver and Austin, and around 5% in Phoenix and San Antonio, TX. Meanwhile, tourism-driven cities such as Las Vegas, Orlando, Nashville and San Diego are softening, too, as travelers spend less and local economies cool. In contrast, markets with lighter construction pipelines, such as the Midwest and Northeast, have held up better. Tech-heavy coastal hubs like San Francisco, New York and San Jose even saw modest rent growth, likely helped by return-to-office policies and limited new deliveries.

Factors at Play for Camden Property and Q3 Projections

In the third quarter of 2025, Camden is expected to have benefited from its portfolio in high-growth markets with high-quality resident profiles that enable the company to generate steady rental revenues. Moreover, Camden’s strategic presence across both urban and suburban areas is likely to have contributed to stable top-line performance.

Additionally, the company’s focus on technology, operational scale and organizational strength is anticipated to have improved efficiency, lowered costs and supported NOI growth through margin expansion and enhanced resident satisfaction across its portfolio.

However, the elevated supply of rental units in certain markets is likely to have led to heightened competition, impeding the rent growth momentum to some extent.

For the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPT’s revenues currently stands at $399.4 million, implying growth of 3.1% from the year-ago reported number.

For the third quarter, Camden expected core FFO per share in the range of $1.67-$1.71. However, before the third-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were not adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share has remained unchanged in the past two months at $1.69, which lies within the guided range but suggests a decline of 1.17% year over year.

Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for CPT:

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Camden this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.

Camden currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two stocks from the broader REIT industry — CareTrust REIT CTRE and American Healthcare REIT, Inc. AHR — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

CareTrust REIT is slated to report quarterly numbers on Nov. 5. CTRE has an Earnings ESP of +1.41% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

AHR, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Nov. 6, currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.58% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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