Hyatt to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Hyatt Hotels Corporation H is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 6, before the opening bell. How effectively the company preserves fee-based growth and accelerates its shift toward an asset-light earnings mix will be a key focus in the face of a choppy U.S. demand backdrop.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3% and 3.9%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, the top line grew 6.2%, while the bottom line tumbled 55.6%.

H’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 5.6%.

Trend in the Estimate Revision of H

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS has declined to 49 cents from 55 cents in the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates a 47.6% decrease from the year-ago EPS of 94 cents.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $1.83 billion, implying an increase of 12.5% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Hyatt Hotels Corporation price-eps-surprise | Hyatt Hotels Corporation Quote

Let us look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.

Factors Likely to Shape Hyatt’s Quarterly Results

Hyatt continues to benefit from resilient luxury travel spending and strong global leisure demand, particularly in all-inclusive resorts where performance trends remain exceptionally healthy. International markets are expected to outperform the United States once again, supported by solid inbound tourism and momentum across Europe and the Asia Pacific.

Management has indicated that system-wide RevPAR growth for the third quarter is expected to land near the low end of flat to up 2% projection due to tougher prior-year comparisons and timing effects linked to major events and holidays. The U.S. RevPAR is anticipated to remain roughly flat to down slightly year over year before improvement into the fourth quarter as comps ease and booking momentum strengthens. Lower-chain-scale properties, particularly U.S. select-service hotels, remain the primary drag on domestic performance, while luxury and international segments are expected to continue outperforming in the quarter.

In Greater China, visibility remains limited due to variability in demand recovery trends. However, the company indicated during the second-quarter conference call that RevPAR could rise in the low single digits for the balance of the year, helped by easier comparisons versus last year’s softer levels. This suggests modest but improving performance continuing through the third quarter. The strongest momentum is expected in Asia Pacific excluding Greater China, where Hyatt sees the potential for industry-leading RevPAR growth. Conversely, Europe faces more difficult year-over-year comparisons, particularly in the third quarter. Hyatt expects RevPAR contraction in Europe during the third quarter, with improvement over the balance of the year bringing growth back to roughly flat versus 2024.

Our model predicts revenues from Franchise and other fees to rise 6.6% year over year to $126.9 million. System expansion, RevPAR growth and increased non-RevPAR fees are expected to have supported the company’s gross fees in the third quarter. Our model predicts the third-quarter gross fees to rise 9.7% year over year to $294.1 million.

On the margin side, for the third quarter, management expects continued margin pressure from the lag in select-service recovery in the United States, along with heavier integration expenses. Elevated interest costs and inflationary pressure on operations remain watchpoints as Hyatt advances its capital-light transformation.

Hyatt’s earnings profile continues to shift toward fee-based contributions as it reduces ownership exposure and scales its distribution and management platform. The upcoming sale of Playa real estate — tied to recently acquired all-inclusive resorts — is expected to support margin expansion and be accretive beginning in 2026.

Our model predicts third-quarter adjusted EBITDA to decline 8.1% year over year to $252.7 million.

What Our Model Says About H Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Hyatt this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.

H’s Earnings ESP: Hyatt has an Earnings ESP of -18.92%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

H’s Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Amer Sports, Inc. AS has an Earnings ESP of +4.84% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
 
For the to-be-reported quarter, Amer Sports is expected to register a 78.6% increase in earnings. Amer Sports reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 83.9%.
 
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited MLCO has an Earnings ESP of +9.09% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
 
For the to-be-reported quarter, Melco Resorts & Entertainment’s earnings are expected to increase 37.5%. Melco Resorts & Entertainment reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 333%.
 
Planet Fitness, Inc. PLNT currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.03% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

For the to-be-reported quarter, Planet Fitness’ earnings are expected to rise 12.5% year over year. Planet Fitness reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 6.8%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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