Can Comfort Systems Keep Its Record $9.38B Backlog Momentum Going?

Comfort Systems USA FIX finished its third-quarter 2025 with a record backlog of $9.38 billion, with a same-store backlog of $9.2 billion. The numbers indicate year-over-year increases of 65.1% and 62%, respectively. The ongoing support from the elevated public infrastructure spending because of several federal and state initiatives has boosted the market’s optimism. The market is thriving with projects for technology advancements, digital innovations and sustainable alternatives, which is benefiting companies like FIX.

During the third-quarter earnings call, the company highlighted robust gains from the Technology sector, which it considers under the Industrial customer type. So far in 2025, the Technology sector contributed 42% of the total revenues, reflecting growth from 32% a year ago. Increased demand for data center-related activities has backed this uptick, and the trend is expected to continue, if not amplify, in the upcoming period. Moreover, Comfort Systems’ disciplined bidding, collaborative project sharing across its operating units and continued innovation in automation and AI-driven fabrication have strengthened both capacity and margins.

On Oct. 1, 2025, FIX acquired two electrical companies based in Western Michigan and Southern Florida, FZ Electrical and Meisner Electric, respectively. These acquisitions enhance Comfort Systems' market presence across industrial and health care capabilities, and combinedly are expected to deliver more than $200 million of incremental annual revenues and $15-$20 million of incremental annual EBITDA.

However, FIX faces a tight labor market and potential normalization in late-stage project margins that boosted recent profitability. Nonetheless, management remains optimistic, projecting same-store revenue growth in the low to mid-teens for 2026, supported by robust customer pipelines and selective acquisitions. The current backlog strength suggests momentum to remain firmly on Comfort Systems’ side.

Comfort Systems Facing Competition

Comfort Systems holds a clear tactical edge in the fast-growing data-center market because its backlog is deeply skewed to technology or industrial work. But it faces substantial competition from other key players, including EMCOR Group, Inc. EME and AECOM ACM.

EMCOR is a much larger, more diversified electrical and mechanical contractor with record remaining performance obligations and notable data-center exposure. But its scale and broader service mix mean it competes across more end markets.

On the other hand, AECOM stands higher in the value chain with about $24.6B backlog and full-service design or engineering capability for data centers and infrastructure, giving it strength on mega-projects and design-to-delivery programs. That breadth is powerful for integrated campus builds but can be less nimble for rapidly modular, trade-focused deployments.

Summing up, FIX’s competitive advantage compared with EMCOR and AECOM is its concentrated technology/data-center mix, modular capacity and contractor execution model, which convert bookings into faster onsite starts and strong margin capture.

FIX Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation Trend

Shares of this Texas-based heating, ventilation, air conditioning and electrical contracting service provider have trended upward 38.5% in the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Air Conditioner and Heating industry, the broader Construction sector and the S&P 500 Index. The detailed share price performance is shown in the chart below.

FIX stock is currently trading at a premium compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.92, as evidenced by the chart below.

Earnings Estimate Trend Favors FIX

FIX’s earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have trended upward over the past 30 days to $26.31 and $30.61 per share, respectively. The estimated figures for 2025 and 2026 imply year-over-year growth of 80.2% and 16.4%, respectively.

The robust market fundamentals and FIX’s strategic initiatives to curb the adverse impacts of macro uncertainties are likely to have induced bullish sentiments among analysts.

Comfort Systems stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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