CSX's Q1 Earnings Coming Up: What's in the Offing for the Stock?

CSX Corporation CSX is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 16, after market close. 

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 38 cents per share, which has been revised 2.6% downward over the past 60 days.  The consensus mark implies a 17.4% year-over-year decline. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CSX’s first-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $3.54 billion, indicating a 3.9% decline year over year.

CSX has a mixed earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters and missed twice, the average miss being 0.6%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for CSX this earnings season.

CSX’s Q1 Expectations

The new U.S. tariff policy, along with ongoing shifts in energy markets and regulations, is expected to have pressured coal-fired power generation in CSX’s service area. This tariff is anticipated to have a compounding effect on the decline of coal usage by raising the cost of imported energy-related materials and equipment, potentially accelerating the shift away from coal among utilities.

Estimates for first-quarter 2025 Merchandise revenues of $2.20 billion imply growth of 0.9% year over year. The consensus estimate for Intermodal revenues of $498 million indicates a decline of 1.6% year over year. Estimates for Coal revenues of $472.8 million suggest a drop of 25.2% year over year.

Moreover, fluctuations in natural gas prices or other factors influencing electricity demand may continue to impact the viability of coal-fired power generation. These developments could result in reduced coal transport volumes and revenues for CSX.

What Our Model Says About CSX

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CSX this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that's not the case here.

CSX has an Earnings ESP of -0.31% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

CSX Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

CSX Corporation price-eps-surprise | CSX Corporation Quote

Q4 Highlights

Quarterly earnings per share of 42 cents fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny and decreased 6.6% on a year-over-year basis due to lower revenues. Total revenues of $3.53 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.58 million and declined 3.8% year over year. The downside was owing to lower fuel recovery and lower coal revenues, which includes the impact of lower global benchmark rates and hurricane impacts in 2024. This was partially offset by higher pricing and volume in merchandise and higher intermodal volumes.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

C.H. Robinson CHRW has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. CHRW is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 30. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.94% upward in the past 90 days. CHRW’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 21.7%

Expeditors International of Washington EXPD has an Earnings ESP of +1.74% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. EXPD is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 6.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.94% upward in the past 90 days. CHRW’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 21.7%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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