Will Lower Transaction Fees Affect MarketAxess' Q3 Earnings?

Electronic trading platform MarketAxess Holdings Inc. MKTX is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 7, 2025, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.69 per shareon revenues of $206.42 million.

Third-quarter earnings estimates have been revised downward by 18 cents over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a decrease of 11.1% from the year-ago reported number. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year decline of 0.1%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MarketAxess’ revenues is pegged at $852.89 million, implying a rise of 4.4% year over year. Yet, the consensus mark for 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $7.24, indicating a fall of around 0.6% on a year-over-year basis.

MarketAxesshas a robust history of surpassing earnings estimates, beating the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 3%. This is depicted in the figure below.

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. price-eps-surprise | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Quote

Q3 Earnings Whispers for MarketAxess

However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.

MKTX has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What is Shaping MarketAxess’ Q3 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the total trading volume indicates a 0.4% year-over-year decrease. The consensus estimate for U.S. high-grade trading volume signals 3% year-over-year decline. Also, the same for Total Rates Trading predicts a 3.2% fall. These are expected to be partially offset by higher volumes in Eurobonds and Emerging Markets.

The consensus mark for Eurobonds trading volumes indicates 16.6% growth from a year ago, while our model estimate implies a 17.4% increase. Similarly, the same for Emerging Markets indicates 12.6% year-over-year growth, whereas our model estimate indicates around a 10% jump.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for commissions is pegged at $178.6 million, indicating 1% decline from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Also, a continued decline in total credit average variable transaction fees per million is expected in the third quarter. The consensus mark indicates 7% year-over-year fall. Similarly, the same for Rates indicates a 0.2% decrease in the third quarter.

Also, we expect total expenses to grow to around $126.4 million in the third quarter, indicating an increase of 5.6% year over year. The factors stated above are expected to lead to a year-over-year decline in the bottom line, making an earnings beat uncertain.

The negatives are likely to be partially offset by higher information services revenues. The consensus mark for third-quarter information services revenues is pinned at $13.4 million, which implies a 3.5% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

How did Other Finance Stocks Perform?

Here are some stocks in the broader Finance space that have already reported earnings for this quarter:Euronet Worldwide, Inc. EEFT and Virtu Financial, Inc. VIRT.

Euronet Worldwide reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $3.62, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.4%. The bottom line rose 19% year over year. The quarterly earnings benefited from strategic buyouts, investments in digital and Dandelion products, and global expansions. However, Euronet Worldwide’s increased expense level partially offset the positives.

Virtu Financial reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.05, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.3% and increased 28% year over year. The strong quarterly results benefited from the improved commissions and technology services revenues. Strong performance in both the Market Making and Execution Services segments, driven by increased trading activity, also contributed to the upside. However, the upside was partly offset by Virtu Financial’s elevated expense level.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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