CF Industries' Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates on Higher Prices

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.CF reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.19 per share, up from $1.55 in the year-ago quarter. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.06.

Net sales rose around 21.2% year over year to $1,659 million in the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,665 million.

In the third quarter, average selling prices increased from the same period in 2024, driven by strong global nitrogen demand, supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues, and higher global energy costs. However, sales volumes were lower year over year, mainly due to lower beginning inventories.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Quote

CF’s Segment Review

Net sales in the Ammonia segment increased 29.5% to $457 million in the reported quarter, beating our estimate of $368.3 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for ammonia rose in the first nine months of 2025 from the year-ago period, mainly due to higher average selling prices and reduced maintenance costs, though this was partly offset by increased realized natural gas costs.

Sales in the Granular Urea segment rose 9% year over year to $423 million, outpacing our estimate of $363.5 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for granular urea increased in the first nine months of 2025 from the year-ago period, mainly driven by higher average selling prices, though partly offset by higher realized natural gas costs.

Sales in the UAN segment rose around 27.3% year over year to $517 million, beating our estimate of $377.4 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for UAN increased in the first nine months of 2025 compared with that of the previous year, mainly due to higher average selling prices, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs.

Sales in the AN segment rose around 15% year over year to $122 million, beating our estimate of $82.7 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for AN rose in first nine months of 2025 from a year ago, primarily due to increased average selling prices, though this was partly offset by higher realized natural gas costs.

CF’s Financials

As of Sept. 30, 2025, CF Industries’ cash and cash equivalents were $1.84 billion, down 2.08% year over year. Long-term debt was $2,974 million, flat year over year.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $1,064 million in the reported quarter, up nearly 14.3% year over year.

The company repurchased 4.3 million shares for $364 million in the third quarter of 2025.

CF’s Outlook

The global nitrogen outlook remains positive through 2025 and beyond, supported by strong demand and tight supply. India, Brazil, and North America are driving robust fertilizer consumption, while inventories remain below average despite resumed Chinese exports, per CF. Supply constraints from high energy costs and limited gas availability continue to pressure producers in Europe and Asia. Growing demand for low-carbon ammonia further strengthens the market. With energy cost advantages favoring North American producers and limited new capacity additions, the global nitrogen balance is expected to tighten, supporting firm pricing and margins in the years ahead.

CF’s Price Performance

Shares of CF Industries have increased 4.8% in the past year compared with the 12% rise of the industry.

CF’s Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks

CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks worth a look in the basic materials space are AngloGold Ashanti plc AU, U.S. Gold Corp. USAU and Integra Resources Corp. ITRG.

AngloGold is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov. 11. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AU’s third-quarter earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.34 per share and $2.35 billion, respectively. AU currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

U.S. Goldis expected to report fiscal second-quarter results on Dec. 15. USAU carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for USAU’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at a loss of 13 cents, indicating 35% year-over-year growth.

Integra Resources is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov. 12. ITRG’s earnings estimate for the third quarter is pegged at 13 cents per share. Integra Resources carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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