OXY Stock Set to Post Q3 Earnings: What to Expect This Season?

Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY is expected to report a year-over-year decline in both top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 10, after market close.

The company’s earnings beat estimates in the last four reported quarters, with an average surprise of 25.72%.

Let us focus how things are shaping up for the upcoming earnings release.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped OXY’s Q3 Earnings

OXY’s third-quarter production volumes are expected to have improved compared with the previous quarter, primarily due to improvements in Permian activity levels and higher production volumes in all of its main operating areas.

The third-quarter earnings might have benefited from strong domestic demand for PVC, but oversupply in the market remains a concern. A muted contribution is expected from OXY’s Midstream and Marketing in the third quarter, assuming the Waha to Gulf Coast natural gas spread continues to narrow from previous levels.

Occidental has been generating cash flow and utilizing the same to reduce debts, which is likely to have a positive impact on earnings. The company retired debts worth $7.5 billion, which lowered annual interest expenses by $410 million; undoubtedly, it will have a positive impact on earnings per share.

Occidental’s cost management initiatives have been yielding positive results and are likely to have improved margins with a positive impact on earnings.

Q3 Expectation

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OXY’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $6.72 billion, indicating a decline of 6.04% from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 48 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OXY’s third-quarter earnings indicates a decline of 52% from the year-ago reported figure.

For the third quarter of 2025, Occidental expects production of 1,415-1,455 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d). Output from the Permian Resources segment is anticipated at 779-799 Mboe/d.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our model does not predict a likely earnings beat for OXY this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Occidental Petroleum Corporation price-eps-surprise | Occidental Petroleum Corporation Quote

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: OXY has an Earnings ESP of +0.89%.

Zacks Rank: Occidental Petroleum currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Earnings Surprise by Others This Season

Here are some stocks in the same sector that have reported positive earnings surprise this season.

Devon Energy Corp. DVN reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.04, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 93 cents by 11.8%.

Long-term (three to five years) earnings growth of the company is pegged at 3.28%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of DVN’s 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year decline of 18.46%.

Murphy Oil Corporation MUR delivered third-quarter 2025 adjusted net earnings of 41 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 16 cents by 156.3%. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of MUR’s 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year decline of 57.61%.

Chevron Corporation CVX reported adjusted third-quarter earnings per share of $1.85, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.66.

Long-term (three to five years) earnings growth of the company is pegged at 4.91%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of CVX’s 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year decline of 27.46%.

 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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