Investors may not know what to make of Dutch Bros (NYSE: BROS) stock in 2025. Although the coffee chain has expanded rapidly since before it began trading, its stock fell after its IPO and traded in a range for most of its history. That changed when a breakout in late 2024 sent shares surging.
Still, after eclipsing the $80 per share mark in February, investors began to sell, causing it to lose around one-third of its value. Now, the question for investors is whether that lower price makes it a buy in 2025, stay on the sidelines, or consider selling this emerging coffee chain. Let's take a closer look.
The state of Dutch Bros
Admittedly, the thought of investing in this coffee stock might lead to questions about Dutch Bros' competitive advantage. American consumers have seemingly limitless choices when it comes to coffee. Thus, having to compete with numerous independents, privately held coffee chains such as Dunkin', and industry giant Starbucks makes it important that Dutch Bros develop some kind of edge.
To that point, it has stood out for its breve coffee drinks, which mix espresso with half and half. However, it also makes other types of drinks, including teas, lemonades, smoothies, and energy drinks. It has also strived to act as a positive force in the communities it serves, emphasizing sustainability, philanthropy, and DEI with regard to its workforce.
Despite competitive threats, Oregon-based Dutch Bros has been expansion-minded since its founding, and that has accelerated since the company launched its IPO in 2021.
Over the last four years, the number of its drive-thru coffee shops doubled, with 151 shops added in 2024 alone. Amid its expansion efforts, it opened its 1,000th shop in February.
Though it was largely a regional chain in the western U.S., it is now in 18 states and has moved as far east as Florida. With its footprint now spanning from coast to coast, its goal of eventually reaching 4,000 shops nationwide appears achievable.
Moreover, such regional-to-national expansions have historically boosted shareholder value in similar industries, so its growth strategy should bode well for Dutch Bros shareholders in the long run.
Dutch Bros caffeinated financials
Not surprisingly, the expansion has supercharged revenue growth, and revenue rose 33% in 2024 to $1.28 billion. This included same-shop sales growth of over 5% over the same period, indicating that it is gaining popularity in the communities it serves.
Additionally, it limited cost and expense growth to 28%, which improved its operating margin. Even when factoring in non-operating expenses, its 2024 net income was over $35 million, well above the $1.7 million profit in 2023.
Looking forward, Dutch Bros' guidance points to more of the same in 2025, albeit with some slowing. The company plans to add 160 shops during the year, and the estimated revenue range of $1.555 billion to $1.575 billion would imply 22% revenue growth in the current year.
That slowing could make investors wary of its valuation. Since it only turned profitable in 2023, investors may forgive the P/E ratio of 162. Still, with a forward P/E ratio of 91, it appears pricey for a company with rapid but slowing growth.
Dutch Bros in 2025
In 2025, Dutch Bros stock looks like a hold.
Indeed, the company is in the middle of a rapid regional-to-national expansion. Such moves tend to significantly boost revenue and profits over time, which contributes significantly to improved shareholder value.
Unfortunately, the stock's valuation has become elevated by any measure. Thus, it may have priced itself for perfection, and even though it continues to grow at a quick pace, the slowing of that growth could lead investors to question its high forward P/E ratio.
Over the long term, Dutch Bros remains in a strong position to outperform the market. Nonetheless, with its valuation ahead of growth, investors should probably hold out for a lower stock price before adding to positions.
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Will Healy has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Starbucks. The Motley Fool recommends Dutch Bros. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
