4 Likely Retail Winners Investors Shouldn't Miss This Earnings Season

As investors await upcoming earnings reports, the performance of key players within the Retail-Wholesale sector could impact market sentiment in the coming weeks. This reporting cycle provides valuable insight into sector performance, with expectations for a potential uptick in both sales and earnings. These results are likely to be influenced by prevailing consumer sentiment, spending trends and the ongoing challenge of managing operational costs.

According to the latest Zacks Earnings Preview, the sector is expected to experience top-line growth of 6.2% year over year in the third quarter. This follows a 6.1% increase in the preceding season. Meanwhile, the bottom line is expected to rise 15.3% this earnings season. The sector registered earnings growth of 12.8% in the previous reporting cycle.

With the earnings season nearing its end, it is worth investing in companies with earnings beat potential. We have identified four stocks — Dollar General Corporation DG, Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL, Urban Outfitters, Inc. URBN and The TJX Companies, Inc. TJX — that are poised to trump earnings estimates this season.

Key Factors Likely to Have Influenced Retail Earnings

Retail earnings this season are expected to reflect changing consumer spending patterns, as shoppers increasingly favor essentials and value-oriented products amid ongoing inflationary pressures. Retailers emphasizing competitive pricing and product diversification, especially in areas like groceries and home essentials, may have seen higher foot traffic and improved conversion rates. 

However, persistent inflation, although moderating, still impacts consumer budgets and retailers’ cost structures. As a result, discretionary categories might have experienced lower demand as households prioritized necessities over non-essential purchases. Still, the back-to-school season and early holiday promotions might have helped sustain sales volumes in apparel, electronics, and personal care & health categories.

Services and labor costs, particularly in logistics and store staffing, remained sticky, adding pressure on operating margins. Many companies had to reinvest in wage increases to retain workers during a tight labor market, cutting into operating leverage. Nonetheless, retailers employing strategic pricing, including promotions and private-label expansions, are better equipped to maintain market share without significantly eroding margins. Those with strong supply-chain management and the ability to pass increased costs to consumers are likely to see stable earnings.

The sustained growth of e-commerce, supported by faster delivery times, improved app interfaces, and the integration of AI-driven recommendation engines, remains crucial for retail success. Companies investing in smooth online shopping experiences, along with effective last-mile delivery, are attracting a larger customer base. The combination of physical and digital channels — such as click-and-collect options and curbside pickups — along with loyalty programs provides a competitive advantage, especially as consumers seek convenience and flexibility.

Efficient inventory management will also be a key factor in retail profitability this earnings season. Retailers leveraging advanced analytics and demand forecasting tools to optimize stock levels are better positioned to meet consumer demand while protecting profit margins. However, supply-chain complexities, including tariff-driven cost volatility and extended lead times, still pose risks, potentially limiting the full benefit of improved demand planning.

4 Retail Stocks Poised for Earnings Surprises

Our research shows that for stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), the chance of a positive earnings surprise is as high as 70%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Dollar General: Zacks Rank #2 & Earnings ESP of +12.31%

Dollar General continues to strengthen its position as America’s go-to neighborhood retailer, underpinned by consistent traffic gains, expanding market share, and strong execution across consumable and discretionary categories. Ongoing shrink reduction initiatives, disciplined cost control, and enhanced value offerings are driving margin recovery and financial resilience. Strategic investments in store optimization, distribution, and digital partnerships further enhance convenience and accessibility. With its value-driven model and nationwide scale, Dollar General is well-positioned to deliver sustainable growth.

Dollar General has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +12.31%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share has been stable at 95 cents over the past 30 days. The consensus estimate implies an increase of 6.7% from the year-ago period. DG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.3%, on average. The company is scheduled to report financial numbers on Dec. 4, before the opening bell. 
 

Dollar General Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Dollar General Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Dollar General Corporation Quote

Burlington Stores: Zacks Rank #3 & Earnings ESP of +3.24%

Burlington Stores’ momentum reflects the success of its Burlington 2.0 transformation, combining disciplined merchandising, modernized store formats and strong execution to capture market share in off-price retail. Merchandising 2.0 tools enable agile buying decisions and margin expansion, while the Stores 2.0 initiative enhances customer experience and sales productivity. Continued expansion through new stores and remodels supports top-line growth and operational leverage. With improving store performance and a scalable off-price model, Burlington is poised for continued profitable growth.

Investors can count on Burlington Stores with a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +3.24%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share has risen by a penny to $1.59 in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate suggests an increase of 2.6% from the year-ago period. BURL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.7%, on average. The company will report numbers on Nov. 25, before the opening bell. 
 

Burlington Stores, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Burlington Stores, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Burlington Stores, Inc. Quote

Urban Outfitters: Zacks Rank #3 & Earnings ESP of +6.24%

Urban Outfitters showcased impressive growth across all brands, driven by innovation, digital strength and owned-brand expansion. Anthropologie and Free People delivered record results supported by brand-led product development and lifestyle diversification, while Nuuly’s rapid subscriber growth highlights the company’s disruptive edge in apparel rental. Strategic investments in marketing, logistics, and brand experience are deepening engagement and unlocking new revenue streams. With balanced growth across retail, wholesale and subscription segments, URBN is charting a path toward sustained brand momentum and long-term value creation.

Urban Outfitters has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +6.24%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has risen by a penny to $1.19 over the past seven days. The consensus estimate implies an increase of 8.2% from the year-ago period. URBN has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 24.8%, on average. 
 

Urban Outfitters, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Urban Outfitters, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Urban Outfitters, Inc. Quote

TJX Companies: Zacks Rank #3 & Earnings ESP of +2.87%

TJX Companies delivered broad-based strength across all banners and geographies, reaffirming the power of its global off-price model. Its strong value proposition, diversified merchandise assortment, and unmatched buying network continue to attract a wide demographic of consumers while fueling market share gains. Operational efficiencies and disciplined inventory management underpin margin expansion even amid tariff headwinds. With a long runway for global growth and proven resilience across cycles, TJX is set for sustained success. 

TJX Companies has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +2.87%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has risen by a penny to $1.22 over the past 30 days. The consensus estimate suggests an increase of 7% from the year-ago period. TJX has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.4%, on average. The company will report numbers on Nov. 19, before the opening bell. 
 

The TJX Companies, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The TJX Companies, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The TJX Companies, Inc. Quote

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