Here's Why You Should Retain CF Industries Stock in Your Portfolio

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF gains on higher nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and lower natural gas costs amid headwinds from soft nitrogen prices.

The CF stock has lost 7.8% over the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 4.2% decline.

Let’s find out why CF stock is worth retaining at the moment.

Healthy Nitrogen Demand, Lower Gas Costs Aid CF Stock 

CF Industries benefits from the rising global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, which is driven by significant agricultural demand. Industrial demand for nitrogen has also recovered from the pandemic-related disruptions. Global demand is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics. High levels of corn planted acres and low nitrogen channel inventories are expected to drive demand for nitrogen in North America. Demand for urea is also likely to remain strong in Brazil on higher corn acres. Demand in India is expected to be driven by low inventory levels.

CF, on its fourth-quarter call, said that it anticipates global supply-demand balance to continue to be positive since inventories around the globe are considered to be below normal and production economics for the industry's marginal producers in Europe remain challenging.

The company sees average U.S. corn returns to be higher than soybeans, owing in part to rising corn prices as a result of robust corn exports and lower 2024 yield predictions, which are projected to benefit corn plantings and nitrogen demand in the region. Nitrogen imports to Brazil are likely to remain high in 2025 due to anticipated high corn plantings and ongoing minimal domestic nitrogen output. Urea inventory in India is predicted to be low due to strong domestic demand for urea, lower-than-targeted domestic urea output and lower urea import volumes in 2024 compared to 2023.

CF also stands to benefit from lower natural gas prices. It saw a decline in natural gas costs in the fourth quarter. The average cost of natural gas fell to $2.43 per MMBtu in the quarter from $3.01 per MMBtu in the year-ago quarter. The same for 2024 declined to $2.4 per MMBtu from $3.67 per MMBtu a year ago. Lower natural gas costs led to a decline in the company's cost of sales in 2024. The benefits of reduced gas costs are expected to continue in 2025.

Weak Nitrogen Prices Ail CF Industries 

CF Industries faces headwinds from weak nitrogen prices. Higher global supply availability driven by higher global operating rates due to lower global energy costs put pressure on nitrogen prices last year. CF’s average selling prices in 2024 were lower than in 2023 due to lower global energy costs, which reduced the global clearing price required to meet demand. It saw lower year-over-year prices across its segments in 2024. While the company is seeing improved prices lately, weaker year-over-year prices are expected to impact its results over the near term. Weak pricing is expected to weigh on its sales and margins.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Price and Consensus

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-chart | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Quote

CF’s Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks

CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are DRDGOLD Limited DRD, Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc. IDR and Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS, each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DRD’s current-year earnings is pegged at $1.06 per share, indicating a 29.3% year-over-year rise. DRD’s shares have soared roughly 93% in the past year. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Idaho Strategic Resources’ current-year earnings is pegged at 78 cents, suggesting a 16.4% year-over-year rise. IDR surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing once, with an average earnings surprise of 77.5%. The company's shares have rallied 88% in the past year.

The consensus estimate for Carpenter Technology for the current fiscal year stands at $6.95, reflecting a 46.6% year-over-year increase. CRS beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 15.7%.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research