Key Points
Rigetti stock costs $25 today, but could be worth $51 a year from now.
If it keeps doubling at that rate, $2,500 invested in Rigetti today could become $10,000 in two years.
Rigetti stock is already very expensive today, however, and entirely unprofitable.
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Despite being valued at $8.2 billion today, Rigetti is still a stock firmly in start-up mode, building its business and growing its revenue off a very small base. The entire company generated only $7.5 million in sales over the last 12 months, so if you buy Rigetti stock today, you're getting in very much on the ground floor.
Image source: Getty Images.
How to value Rigetti stock
Priced just below $25 a share, analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence believe Rigetti's share price is on course to hit at least $40 within a year -- with some analysts forecasting the stock will rise as high as $51. That's double the stock's price today, enough growth to turn $2,500 into $5,000 within a year and, if all goes well and the growth continues, perhaps enough to turn your money into $10,000 in just a couple of years.
And yet, not everything about Rigetti is financial rainbows and unicorns, and investors in the quantum stock need to be aware of the risks. The most obvious risk here is valuation. An $8.2 billion market cap with only $7.5 million in sales means Rigetti sells for an astronomical 1,093 times sales. Worse, and contrary to what you might hope for in a growth stock, Rigetti's sales aren't rising. They're shrinking -- down 43% from what the company collected in 2022.
Admittedly, the analysts recommending Rigetti say this will change. They actually think Rigetti will do $300 million in sales by 2030. And yet, even then, the same analysts who recommend buying Rigetti stock don't think it will be profitable -- five years from now.
Unless you're willing to accept that risk, you probably shouldn't buy Rigetti stock.
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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends S&P Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.