Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Ulta Beauty?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) holds a #2 (Buy) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.48 a share 14 days away from its upcoming earnings release on December 4, 2025.
By taking the percentage difference between the $4.48 Most Accurate Estimate and the $4.47 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Ulta Beauty has an Earnings ESP of +0.24%. Investors should also know that ULTA is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
ULTA is part of a big group of Retail and Wholesale stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Expedia (EXPE) as well.
Expedia is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on February 5, 2026. EXPE's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.40 a share 77 days from its next earnings release.
Expedia's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +2.20% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.32.
ULTA and EXPE's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA): Free Stock Analysis Report Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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