Is Burlington Stores Set for Another Surprise as Q3 Earnings Approach?

As Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL prepares to unveil its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on Nov. 25, before the opening bell, investors are eager to see if the company can beat market expectations. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $2.71 billion, implying 7.1% growth from the prior year. Meanwhile, the consensus mark for earnings has been stable at $1.59 per share over the past 30 days, suggesting an increase of 2.6% from the year-ago period.

Burlington Stores has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.7%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 25.2%.

Key Factors to Observe for BURL’s Q3 Earnings

Burlington Stores’ third-quarter top-line results are likely to be supported by strong customer response to improved assortments and enhanced in-store execution. The company has benefited from its increasingly agile buying model, which allows merchants to chase trends and secure attractive off-price merchandise more quickly. This ability to keep floors fresh and focused on value probably helped boost traffic and conversion. We expect comparable store sales to increase 1.5% in the quarter under discussion.

Operational improvements within the Burlington 2.0 framework are also likely to have contributed significantly during the quarter. Upgrades in merchandising systems, supply-chain efficiency, and store productivity have already shown evidence of improving merchandise margins and tighter expense control. These structural drivers — particularly faster inventory turns, reduced freight costs, and improved markdown discipline — are expected to have strengthened Burlington’s profitability.

The company’s ongoing store transformation efforts probably also played a key role in shaping third-quarter results. Burlington’s redesigned store layouts, improved signage, and enhanced operational processes have been driving stronger customer engagement. These upgraded locations consistently outperform legacy formats, thanks to better navigation, clearer value communication, and more effective in-store execution.

However, Burlington Stores' third-quarter results may have been affected by macroeconomic and structural pressures, especially the impact of higher import-related costs linked to tariffs. Management has acknowledged that elevated tariff costs are a significant headwind, and while the company has been working to offset these challenges, not all of the pressure is fully absorbed. Additionally, softer demand in categories sensitive to seasonality remains a concern.

Burlington Stores, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Burlington Stores, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Burlington Stores, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Says About BURL’s Q3 Earnings

As investors prepare for Burlington Stores’ third-quarter announcement, the question looms regarding earnings beat or miss. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Burlington Stores this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Burlington Stores has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +3.24%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three other companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. OLLI currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.54% and a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share is pegged at 71 cents, implying a 22.4% year-over-year decline. 

Ollie's Bargain’s top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues stands at $615.7 million, which indicates an increase of 19% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.2%, on average.

Five Below, Inc. FIVE has an Earnings ESP of +74.71% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. FIVE’s top line is anticipated to advance year over year when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $969.9 million, which suggests a 15% rise from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register a decrease in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Five Below’s third-quarter earnings is pinned at 22 cents a share, suggesting a decline of 47.6% from the year-ago quarter. FIVE has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 50.5%, on average.

Dollar General Corporation DG has an Earnings ESP of +5.45% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. DG’s top line is expected to advance year over year when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $10.61 billion, which suggests a 4.2% jump from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Dollar General’s third-quarter earnings stands at 92 cents a share, calling for 3.4% growth from the year-ago quarter. DG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.3%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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