SMCI Aims for $36B in FY26 Revenues: Is the Growth Target Realistic?

Super Micro Computer, Inc. SMCI has projected that it will achieve $36 billion in revenues in fiscal 2026, representing massive 64% year-over-year growth. However, its recent quarterly results declined 15.5% on a year-over-year basis, raising the question: Is this growth target too ambitious or is it grounded in reality?

Nevertheless, the decline in first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues occurred not because of demand weakness but mainly due to a revenue shift from the September quarter to the December quarter due to last-minute configuration upgrades as requested by SMCI’s customers. Given this small hiccup, the $36 billion revenue target appears achievable for several reasons.

SMCI is banking heavily on its Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS), which offer modular, ready-to-deploy infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centers. As the solution reduces deployment time and lowers costs, management believes this approach will attract both hyperscale and enterprise customers. With several large-scale customers already onboard and more expected in fiscal 2026, SMCI sees DCBBS as a key growth engine.

Another factor supporting the target is the growing demand for AI computing. Partnerships with vendors like NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices position Super Micro Computer to deliver the latest GPU-powered platforms, which remain in high demand among cloud providers and sovereign AI projects. Expansion in Europe, Asia and the Middle East also offers additional growth avenues.

Nonetheless, scaling to $36 billion will depend on smooth execution, supply availability and steady AI investment cycles. Any delays in customer adoption or product launches could push growth expectations lower. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 revenues is pegged at $36.70 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 67%.

How Competitors Fare Against SMCI

Super Micro Computer competes with Dell Technologies DELL and Hewlett Packard Enterprise HPE in the AI and data center market.

Dell Technologies is a major supplier of servers and storage systems, with a broad customer base across enterprises and cloud providers. Its scale, established distribution and service offerings give it an edge in winning large contracts. Though Dell Technologies has not grown as quickly as SMCI in AI-specific systems, its ability to bundle hardware with services makes it a strong rival.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is also expanding aggressively into AI and high-performance computing. Its GreenLake platform provides customers with flexible, cloud-like consumption models, which can be attractive to enterprises. Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s focus on hybrid cloud and AI workloads positions it as a direct competitor in areas where SMCI is seeking growth through its DCBBS strategy.

SMCI’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of Super Micro Computer have risen around 7.7% year to date compared with the Zacks Computer – Storage Devices industry’s growth of 67.8%.

From a valuation standpoint, SMCI trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.52, lower than the industry’s average of 18.91.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Super Micro Computer’s fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of approximately 4.4% and 44%, respectively. Estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings have been revised downward in the past 30 days.

Super Micro Computer currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research