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What Analyst Projections for Key Metrics Reveal About Ulta (ULTA) Q3 Earnings

By Zacks Equity Research | December 01, 2025, 9:15 AM

In its upcoming report, Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is predicted by Wall Street analysts to post quarterly earnings of $4.51 per share, reflecting a decline of 12.3% compared to the same period last year. Revenues are forecasted to be $2.71 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.3%.

The current level reflects a downward revision of 0.5% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over this period.

Prior to a company's earnings release, it is of utmost importance to factor in any revisions made to the earnings projections. These revisions serve as a critical gauge for predicting potential investor behaviors with respect to the stock. Empirical studies consistently reveal a strong link between trends in earnings estimate revisions and the short-term price performance of a stock.

While investors typically use consensus earnings and revenue estimates as indicators of quarterly business performance, exploring analysts' projections for specific key metrics can offer valuable insights.

With that in mind, let's delve into the average projections of some Ulta metrics that are commonly tracked and projected by analysts on Wall Street.

The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Total stores open at end of the quarter' will likely reach 1,494 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 1,437 in the same quarter of the previous year.

The average prediction of analysts places 'Total gross square feet at end of the quarter' at 15505 millions of square feet. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 15021 millions of square feet in the same quarter of the previous year.

Analysts expect 'Number of stores opened during the quarter' to come in at 20 . Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 28 in the same quarter last year.

Analysts predict that the 'Net sales per average total square footage' will reach $177.01 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $168.44 in the same quarter of the previous year.

The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Total stores open at beginning of the quarter' of 1,473 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 1,411 .

According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Net Sales by Primary Category - Services' should come in at 4.0%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 4.0%.

Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Net Sales by Primary Category - Fragrance' should arrive at 10.5%. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 10.0% in the same quarter of the previous year.

Analysts' assessment points toward 'Net Sales by Primary Category - Haircare' reaching 19.5%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 20.0%.

Analysts forecast 'Net Sales by Primary Category - Cosmetics' to reach 40.8%. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 41.0% in the same quarter last year.

View all Key Company Metrics for Ulta here>>>

Shares of Ulta have experienced a change of +3.7% in the past month compared to the -0.5% move of the Zacks S&P 500 composite. With a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), ULTA is expected to outperform the overall market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .

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Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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