Hormel Foods Readies for Q4 Earnings: Things to Watch for HRL Stock

Hormel Foods Corporation HRL is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on Dec. 4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.2 billion, implying a 2.1% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. 

The consensus mark for earnings has declined by 11.8% in the past 30 days to 30 cents per share, which indicates a drop of 28.6% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. HRL delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 5.6%, on average.

Things to Know Ahead of HRL’s Upcoming Results

Hormel Foods’ sales momentum has been supported by solid consumer demand across its protein-focused retail brands. Products such as SPAM, Hormel pepperoni, Jennie-O ground turkey and Wholly Guacamole continued to show healthy volume gains in the third quarter, with the Planters brand regaining distribution and household penetration. These trends position HRL’s Retail segment to remain a positive revenue driver in the upcoming results.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Retail segment’s sales is pegged at $1,945 million for the fourth quarter, indicating an increase from $1,907 million reported in the year-ago period. 

Foodservice volumes continue to outperform the broader industry, but soft traffic — especially in convenience stores — is a concern. 

Input-cost inflation remains a major challenge. Pork and beef markets surged far more than Hormel Foods expected, creating a significant drag on margins in the last reported quarter. Management noted that these elevated costs have persisted into the early fourth quarter. 

While the company has announced targeted pricing actions, retail pricing carries a lag, with more meaningful recovery expected only in fiscal 2026. HRL’s Transform and Modernize initiative continues to deliver savings, though not enough to fully counter inflation in the near term. This raises concerns for profitability.

Earnings Whispers for HRL

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Hormel Foods this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. 

Hormel Foods has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of 0.00% at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

American Eagle Outfitters AEO currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The consensus mark for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.32 billion, which indicates growth of 2.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Eagle’s quarterly earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 43 cents, which implies a 10.4% decrease year over year. AEO delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 30.3%, on average.

Ulta Beauty ULTA currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.56% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus estimate for Ulta Beauty’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.71 billion, which indicates 7.3% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ulta Beauty’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $4.51, which implies a 12.3% decrease year over year. ULTA delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.3%, on average.

Victoria's Secret VSCO currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.84% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.41 billion, which indicates 4.5% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Victoria's Secret’s upcoming quarter’s bottom line is pegged at a loss of 60 cents per share compared with a loss of 50 cents recorded in the year-ago period. VSCO delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 47.2%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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