Why Bitcoin ETFs Like IBIT May Be Set to Surge in 2026

Being a crypto investor—whether through direct exposure or via the equity markets—requires a strong tolerance for elevated volatility. That volatility has been on full display over the past two months.

After hitting its all-time high of $126,270 on Oct. 6, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 36% through Nov. 22. As a result, investors have been vacating their positions in Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by alarming amounts as they rotate into risk-off assets. 

In total, Bitcoin ETFs lost a record-high $3.7 billion in November, correlating with BTC’s worst monthly performance in three years. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSEARCA:IBIT) and Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:BTC), for instance, both lost more than 31% from their all-time highs, which occurred on the same day, Oct. 3.

But since Nov. 22, the mega-cap digital asset has recovered more than 7%, suggesting that Bitcoin has found its footing and is perhaps in the early stages of a price reversal. And as spot ETFs, funds with Bitcoin exposure have mirrored those recoveries. 

For IBIT and others, that pattern could continue as the price of BTC receives bullish outlooks for 2026. That presents a buying opportunity in those beaten-down funds that should be grabbing investors’ attention. 

Bitcoin’s 2026 Forecasts Make a Bullish Case for BTC Spot ETFs

While 2026 forecasts for the price of Bitcoin have been a mixed bag, the general consensus is that the leader of digital assets will produce positive returns in the year ahead, although numerous predictions suggest the crypto could see just modest gains compared to past years. 

Crypto trading platform Kraken conservatively pins BTC’s year-end 2026 price to be just north of $96,000, or less than 5% higher than where Bitcoin is trading today. Another, Changelly, forecasts BTC to be trading for $99,933.90, or more than 9% higher than today’s price. 

Investment banks are presenting more bullish scenarios, with their price predictions acting as outliers compared to crypto exchanges. JPMorgan analysts, for instance, have recently stated that the price of BTC could hit $170,000 at some point in 2026, implying nearly 86% potential upside from today’s price. 

On Nov. 15, Forbes reported that the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has drifted lower, theoretically suggesting that over the course of 2026, Bitcoin will close the gap with the precious metal’s gains. Regardless of those discrepancies, the general direction for the largest crypto by market cap appears to be up and to the right. 

In its Investment Outlook 2026: Seeking Catalysts Amid Complexity report, Goldman Sachs’ notes that investors should be considering broadening access to alternatives, especially given concerns about ballooning global government debt, which now exceeds $100 trillion. 

That could serve as a tailwind for crypto—and Bitcoin in particular—with Goldman Sachs citing that the “U.S. fiscal deficit is unusually large relative to the economy’s strength, with the debt-to-GDP ratio approaching a post-war high.” 

More broadly, the investment bank notes that spending pressures are mounting around the globe, including “higher defense outlays, the climate transition, and rising healthcare and pension costs due to demographic aging.”

In short, all of those factors are likely to serve as tailwinds for Bitcoin as events begin to unfold in 2026.

Using IBIT to Mirror Bitcoin’s Recovery

Investors who are comfortable with the crypto landscape—and its inherent complexities and risks—could use the recent price correction as an opportunity to buy Bitcoin directly. But for those who gain exposure through the traditional equities market, IBIT serves as the perfect conduit. 

The fund, which is offered and managed by BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) and was one of a dozen Bitcoin spot ETFs approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2024, allows everyday investors to add BTC exposure directly to their brokerage portfolios. 

Each share of IBIT represents fractional ownership in the fund’s actual Bitcoin, which is held in institutional-grade storage by the ETF’s custodian, Coinbase Global’s (NASDAQ: COIN) Coinbase Prime, a full-service prime brokerage platform for institutional crypto investing.

Despite the record outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs in November—including Morgan Stanley shedding $104 million worth of its IBIT position—the fund still boasts a market cap of more than $73 billion while offering investors a reasonable expense ratio of 0.25%. 

And while crypto exchanges—whether centralized or decentralized—can present liquidity concerns with additional transactional gas fees, IBIT has an average daily trading volume of nearly 50 million shares, making it highly liquid at no additional cost to shareholders.  

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