Atlassian Corporation (TEAM): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Atlassian Corporation on Compounding Your Wealth’s Substack by Sergey. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TEAM. Atlassian Corporation's share was trading at $149.52 as of November 28th. TEAM’s forward P/E was 30.67 according to Yahoo Finance.

Atlassian Corporation provides collaboration software that enables organizations to connect all teams through a system of work that unlocks productivity at scale worldwide. TEAM delivered a strong quarter with $1.43 billion in revenue, up 20.6% year over year and ahead of expectations, driven primarily by subscription and cloud momentum.

Cloud revenue grew 26% to $998 million as enterprise migrations accelerated under programs like Ascend and FastShift, doubling migrated seats and deepening partnerships with global system integrators. Remaining Performance Obligations surged 42% to $3.3 billion, reinforcing management’s confidence in sustained growth and prompting an increase in cloud guidance to 22.5% for FY2026.

Despite short-term accounting headwinds from the shift to ratable cloud billing and lower cloud marketplace take rates, fundamentals strengthened across bookings, CRPO, and net expansion, which held steady at roughly 120%. AI adoption continued to scale rapidly, with 3.5 million monthly active AI users and tripled token consumption. The Rovo platform advanced enterprise-grade AI workflows, while integrations with Jira, Confluence, Loom, and Service Management expanded use cases across development, design, and support teams.

Loom surpassed $100 million ARR two years post-acquisition, and upcoming acquisitions such as DX and The Browser Company further reinforce Atlassian’s ambition to build an AI-first system of work. Customer adoption broadened across large enterprises, with 80% of the Fortune 500 and 60% of the Forbes AI 50 using Atlassian’s products, and major brands such as Databricks, Ford, and Wells Fargo deepening platform reliance.

While net new ARR dipped slightly and CAC payback lengthened, the company maintained strong margins, delivered a sizable EPS beat, and issued Q4 guidance above consensus. With migrations expected to peak in FY2028–2029 and management reaffirming a long-term 20% CAGR target, Atlassian enters FY2026 with strengthened momentum and increasing cloud- and AI-driven visibility.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) by Deep Value Returns in May 2025, which highlighted its strong free cash flow engine, disciplined expense management, and long-term 20% CAGR target. The company’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 28.07% since our coverage. This is because the thesis didn’t fully play out. The thesis still stands as management maintains durable growth expectations. Sergey shares a similar view but emphasizes accelerating cloud and AI momentum.

Atlassian Corporation is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 64 hedge fund portfolios held TEAM at the end of the second quarter which was 82 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of TEAM as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.