ASML Holding N.V. (ASML): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on ASML Holding N.V. on Rebound Capital’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ASML. ASML Holding N.V.'s share was trading at $1060.00 as of November 28th. ASML’s trailing and forward P/E were 37.71 and 34.48 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. ASML has been a strong performer, rising approximately 23% since Rebound Capital initiated coverage in June 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. The company is slated to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 15, and Rebound Capital is introducing an “earnings preview” framework, aimed at institutional and short-term investors, to analyze expected stock behavior around earnings, key metrics, management commentary, and guidance.

ASML’s intrinsic value is estimated at €982 per share versus the current price of €836, implying a potential upside of 17%, and any post-earnings dip could offer a favorable entry point. Positive catalysts include stronger-than-expected bookings, traction on its High NA EUV machines, and growing demand from the emerging AI memory market, as cutting-edge memory chips require ASML’s lithography systems. Negative catalysts could include guidance that reflects continued economic uncertainty, tariff impacts, or China-related restrictions.

Historically, ASML’s stock tends to react sharply around earnings, often moving more than 5% regardless of EPS beats, with bookings and guidance being the primary drivers. Investors should focus on long-term 2030 revenue guidance, FY26 revenue expectations, quarterly bookings, and gross margin trends, as these indicators reflect ASML’s pricing power and market positioning.

Management is conservative, consistently under-promising while aiming to over-deliver, especially on AI-related demand, which suggests upside surprises could positively influence the stock. Analysts and Rebound Capital expect the market to focus on FY26 revenue guidance rather than the headline quarter results, anticipating a moderate positive reaction of around 5%, while longer-term guidance remains unchanged. Potential risks, including China export restrictions, are largely priced in, and any lost revenue is expected to be offset by the accelerating AI memory supercycle, positioning ASML for steady growth.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) by FluentInQuality in May 2025, which highlighted the company as the sole global provider of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, emphasizing its technological moat, strong financials, high margins, and geopolitical importance. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately by 41.99% since our coverage. This is because the thesis played out. The thesis still stands as ASML remains critical to advanced semiconductor production. Rebound Capital shares a similar perspective but emphasizes earnings previews, key metrics, and AI memory demand as catalysts for short-term stock movements.

ASML Holding N.V. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 78 hedge fund portfolios held ASML at the end of the second quarter which was 80 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of ASML as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy NOW 

Disclosure: None.