Why Is Suncor Energy (SU) Up 8.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Suncor Energy (SU). Shares have added about 8.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Suncor Energy due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Suncor Energy Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Suncor Energy Q3 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Both Down Y/Y

Suncor Energy reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted operating earnings of $1.07 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents. This outperformance can be attributed to strong production growth in its upstream segment. However, the bottom line declined marginally from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of $1.08 due to lower upstream price realizations.

Operating revenues of $9.2 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.1%, primarily driven by increased sales volumes in both the upstream and downstream segments. However, the top line decreased approximately 3.9% year over year.

Suncor Energy’s board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of 60 Canadian cents per share for its common shareholders of record as of Dec. 3, 2025. The payout, which represents about a 5% increase from the previous quarter, will be made on Dec. 24.

During the quarter, the Alberta-based integrated energy company distributed a total of C$1.4 billion to its shareholders, including C$750 million in share repurchases and C$700 million in dividends. It generated C$3.8 billion in adjusted funds from operations and C$2.3 billion in free cash flow.

In the quarter under discussion, SU achieved a record upstream production of 870,000 barrels per day (bbls/d). It also achieved record refining throughput, totaling 492,000 bbls/d with refinery utilization at 106%. The company recorded the refined product sales of 647,000 bbls/d, increasing from the prior-year sales of 612,300 bbls/d.

Q3 Segmental Performance

Upstream: The company recorded a total production of 870,000 in this segment, an increase of about 5% year over year from 828,600 bbls/d. Moreover, the figure beat the consensus estimate of 850,000 bbls/d.

In the third quarter of 2025, total oil sands bitumen production increased to 958,300 bbls/d compared with 909,600 bbls/d in the previous-year quarter. This growth was primarily fueled by record output at Fort Hills and Firebag.

SU’s E&P volume (international, offshore and natural gas) increased 9.9% to 57,800 bbls/d from 52,600 bbls/d in the year-ago quarter, driven by increased production at Hebron and the addition of production at White Rose, which restarted in the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, the figure beat the consensus estimate of 56,000 bbls/d.

Operating earnings totaled C$1.8 billion, indicating a 4.3% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s C$1.9 billion due to lower upstream price realizations.

Operating costs from Oil Sands operations decreased to C$24.85 per barrel from C$25.75 in the corresponding period of 2024. This decrease was mainly backed by an increase in production volumes, decreased mining costs related to fleet productivity improvements and also an increase in power sales volumes. Total oil sands production rose to 812,200 bbls/d in the third quarter of 2025, up from 776,000 bbls/d in the previous year. Moreover, the figure beat the consensus estimate of 791,000 bbls/d.

Non-upgraded bitumen production rose to 268,100 bbls/d from 262,200 bbls/d in the previous year. However, the figure missed the consensus estimate of 306,000 bbls/d. Net SCO and diesel production increased to 544,100 bbls/d from 513,800 bbls/d a year earlier. Additionally, the number beat the consensus estimate of 485,000 bbls/d.

Fort Hills reported an average third-quarter volume of 184,100 barrels per day (bpd), higher than the year-ago quarter’s level of 166,000 bpd. However, the figure was in line with the consensus estimate of 184,000 bpd. The Fort Hills cash operating cost per barrel decreased to C$30.65 from C$33.40 in the prior-year period. This was backed by increased production volumes.

Furthermore, Syncrude’s cash operating costs per barrel decreased to C$31.45 from C$33 in the same quarter last year. This decrease was mainly backed by decreased maintenance costs.

The oil sands base upgrader operated at 106% capacity and Syncrude achieved a record 98%, compared with 94% and 104%, respectively, in the prior-year quarter. This was primarily due to decreased maintenance activities in the current period, and the benefit of excellent upgrader reliability and improved execution of maintenance activities, including the early completion of the Upgrader 1 coke drum replacement project.

Downstream: Refining and Marketing adjusted operating earnings for the third quarter of 2025 were C$894 million, up from C$484 million in the same quarter last year. The increase in adjusted operating earnings was mainly fueled by higher benchmark crack spreads, a first-in, first-out inventory valuation gain in the third quarter of 2025, compared to a loss in the prior-year quarter, and record refinery production and sales volumes.

Refined product sales totaled 646,800 bpd, up from the prior-year quarter’s level of 612,300 bpd. This growth was driven by higher refinery production, increased investment in retail expansion and strategic partnerships, as well as the company’s extensive domestic sales network and export channels.

Refinery crude throughput totaled 491,700 bpd compared with 487,600 bpd in the year-ago period. Additionally, the number beat the consensus estimate of 458,000 bpd.

Refinery utilization was 106% compared with 105% a year ago. This increase in refinery crude throughput was driven by continued strong operating performance and reliability through the current quarter.

Financial Position

Total expenses increased 0.8% to C$10.5 billion from the prior-year quarter. Operating, selling and general expenses increased to C$3.3 billion in the third quarter of 2025, compared with C$3.1 billion in the prior-year quarter due to increased share-based compensation expense, the impacts of higher production and sales volumes, as well as higher commodity input costs.

Cash flow from operating activities amounted to C$3.8 billion, down from the prior-year quarter’s level of C$4.3 billion. Suncor Energy incurred capital expenditures worth C$1.4 billion in the third quarter of 2025.

As of Sept. 30, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of C$2.9 billion and long-term debt of C$8.6 billion. Its debt-to-capitalization was 16%.

2025 Guidance

Other guidance remains unchanged as before. On Nov. 4, 2025, SU issued updated guidance for 2025 by increasing upstream production volumes from 810,000-840,000 bbls/d to 845,000-855,000 bbls/d. The 2025 refinery throughput guidance has been increased from 435,000-450,000 bbls/d to a range of 470,000 to 475,000 bbls/d. The company expects its refinery utilization to increase from 93%-97% to 101%-102%. Suncor Energy further expects its refined product sales to increase from 555,000-585,000 bbls/d to 610,000-620,000 bbls/d. The business environment has also been adjusted by the company to reflect the current business environment.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted 26.79% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Suncor Energy has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Suncor Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Suncor Energy belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - Canadian industry. Another stock from the same industry, Imperial Oil (IMO), has gained 8.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.

Imperial Oil reported revenues of $8.75 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -10%. EPS of $1.57 for the same period compares with $1.71 a year ago.

Imperial Oil is expected to post earnings of $1.28 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -24.3%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -2.8%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Imperial Oil. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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