Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. on Ridire Research’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ICE. Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s share was trading at $156.94 as of December 1st. ICE’s trailing and forward P/E were 28.65 and 20.83 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) operates with one of the strongest moats in financial infrastructure, combining its NYSE exchange and listings franchise, clearinghouses, and a global data business that anchors the firm in the core of global markets. Its listings on the NYSE remain defensible due to their prestige, liquidity, and integration into benchmark indices—advantages that competitors cannot replicate.

ICE’s clearinghouses further deepen its moat through regulatory barriers and capital efficiency, making it nearly impossible for participants to switch once integrated. Meanwhile, its data segment provides recurring, subscription-based revenue as banks, asset managers, and risk professionals embed ICE’s analytics, pricing, and indices into critical workflows.

The company epitomizes an “own the casino” model: every trade on its futures platforms, every stock listed on the NYSE, and every data stream consumed generates fees, regardless of market direction. This toll-collector positioning enables ICE to thrive across all environments—trading volatility boosts derivatives activity, while stable periods sustain demand for data, listings, and mortgage technology.

Growth catalysts are anchored in expanding digital ecosystems. ICE is scaling its presence in the multi-trillion-dollar U.S. mortgage market through digitalization, extending its data and clearing expertise into carbon and ESG markets, and broadening fixed-income execution capabilities. These adjacencies replicate the same structural economics that made its core businesses durable and high-margin. With entrenched infrastructure, regulatory moats, and compounding data revenue, ICE is not just the casino operator of global markets—it continues to build new ones.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) by Business Model Mastery in May 2025, which highlighted ICE’s dominance across exchanges, clearinghouses, and mortgage technology. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 11.09% since our coverage. This is because the thesis has not yet played out. The thesis still stands as ICE’s moat remains intact, while Ridire Research emphasizes its “own the casino” model.

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 84 hedge fund portfolios held ICE at the end of the second quarter which was 94 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of ICE as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy NOW 

Disclosure: None.