The Cigna Group (CI): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on The Cigna Group on X.com by secretlyaninja. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CI. The Cigna Group's share was trading at $274.10 as of December 2nd. CI’s trailing and forward P/E were 12.11 and 8.98 , respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Cigna Group (CI) fell 17% after management unveiled a strategic overhaul of its Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) business, shifting from the traditional rebate model to a simplified, transparent fee-based structure. While the change will require significant investment through 2026–2027 and temporarily compress PBM margins, the company has already extended contracts with its three largest PBM customers through 2030, enhancing long-term visibility.

Despite near-term profitability pressure in PBM, Cigna expects overall EPS growth in 2026, as its health insurance and specialty care segments—accounting for about 70% of total earnings—continue to expand steadily. The PBM segment, historically viewed as a regulatory risk and the key reason for Cigna’s persistent valuation discount to peers, now appears structurally de-risked. Once the transition is complete, management anticipates PBM margins to stabilize around prior levels (~4% pre-tax), restoring confidence in the business model and supporting multiple expansion.

At an estimated 2025 EPS of over $29.60 and a likely continuation to ~$30 in 2026, Cigna trades at just mid-8x forward earnings versus peers at 12–20x. The company’s health insurance business, which operates without Medicare or Medicaid exposure, further strengthens its defensive positioning and earnings quality. With a clearer, more sustainable PBM structure, improving visibility, and accelerating growth beyond 2027, the stock’s risk/reward looks compelling. Applying a conservative 13x multiple to 2026E EPS implies a valuation near $390 per share—over 50% upside from current levels, plus a 2.4% dividend yield—making this pullback an attractive re-entry point for long-term investors.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on The Cigna Group (CI) by Antonio Linares in May 2025, which highlighted Cigna’s PBM strength and partnerships with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. The stock has depreciated about 12.33% since our coverage due to its PBM restructuring. The thesis still stands as fundamentals remain strong. Secretlyaninja shares a similar view but emphasizes structural de-risking and valuation upside.

The Cigna Group is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 80 hedge fund portfolios held CI at the end of the second quarter which was 74 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of CI as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.