Merus N.V. (MRUS): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Merus N.V. on BiotechBonanza’s Substack by AnotherBio. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MRUS. Merus N.V.'s share was trading at $95.99 as of December 2nd.

Genmab’s acquisition of Merus for $97 per share has been well received by the market, with Genmab’s stock reacting positively despite the deal’s significant size. The transaction reflects continued consolidation in the biotech sector, where large premiums are common, but this deal stands out as the break price is not unusually low—suggesting balanced deal structuring and confidence from both parties. The merger is expected to close around late Q4 or early Q1, based on current timelines and triangulated disclosures.

At a purchase price of $94.82, the deal offers a 2.2% absolute or 11.1% annualized spread, which appears unusually high for a transaction of this quality, implying that market participants may be cautious due to current conditions rather than deal-specific risks. With several other sizable biotech deals underway—such as those involving Akero, Minerva, Avidity, and Merus itself—merger arbitrage capital is likely stretched thin, leading to wider spreads across the space. Additionally, the humorous observation that investors might be chasing fast-moving stocks like Palantir instead of merger arbitrage highlights current sentiment in the market.

Structurally, while this transaction involves cross-border complexity—given that a Danish company is acquiring a Dutch target with U.S. regulatory involvement—there appear to be no substantive antitrust or regulatory hurdles expected beyond potential timing delays. Overall, this merger represents a clean, strategic acquisition by Genmab with a favorable market reaction and minimal deal risk, positioning it as an attractive event-driven opportunity in the biotech space.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Amgen Inc. (AMGN) by Magnus Ofstad in May 2025, which highlighted its strong Q1 results and advancing pipeline in metabolic disease and oncology. The stock has appreciated approximately 20.31% since our coverage as the thesis played out. The thesis still stands as fundamentals remain strong. AnotherBio shares a similar view, emphasizing biotech consolidation via Genmab’s Merus acquisition.

Merus N.V. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 58 hedge fund portfolios held MRUS at the end of the second quarter which was 53 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of MRUS as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.