The Trade Desk: After a 70% Plunge, This Could Be The Time to Buy

Shares of The Trade Desk Inc. (NASDAQ: TTD) have been under pressure for almost all of 2025. After peaking around this time last year, the stock has gone on to fall 70%, wiping out years of gains and sending shares back to levels last seen in 2020.

It’s been one of the worst performers in the software and ad-tech sector, as investors bail on anything tied to digital advertising amid concerns about shrinking budgets and weak consumer spending.

However, those of us on the sidelines know that this kind of punishment can often create opportunity.

Despite the collapse in its share price, The Trade Desk continues to deliver strong operational performance and deliver results that are consistently better than analyst expectations.

The stock is also trading right along a long-term support line that has held multiple times in the past, and with its valuation at multi-year lows, the worst-case scenario already appears to be priced in.

For investors with risk appetite and patience, here are three reasons The Trade Desk may be near a turning point.

1: The Fundamentals Are Still Solid

While sentiment has cratered, the numbers tell a different story. In its most recent quarterly report, The Trade Desk posted year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth in the high teens that comfortably beat expectations, as did its earnings per share. 

The company’s customer retention remained above 95%, as it has for more than a decade, while management’s forward guidance came in well ahead of the consensus. Management also boosted investor confidence by extending its $500 million share-buyback program, a move that implies they believe the underlying stock to be massively undervalued. These are far from the kinds of fundamental results you’d typically see in a stock that has shed 70% of its value in the previous year, suggesting investors may have overreacted. 

2: It Hasn’t Been This Cheap in Years

The Trade Desk’s valuation has reset to levels not seen since before the pandemic. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has collapsed from over 200 last year to around 60 today—still not “cheap” by traditional metrics, but very low compared to where it’s been in the past. 

At this level, investors are paying a fraction of the premium they once did for the same long-term story—a business with near-100% customer retention, solid free cash flow, and an impressive position in the ad-tech market. The stock is back trading at 2020 levels even though revenue has more than tripled since then, which tells you how extreme the market’s pessimism has become.

Simply put, the worst-case scenario now looks priced in. If growth merely stabilizes from here, there’s ample room for multiple expansion, and if it re-accelerates, this current valuation will look like a gift in hindsight.

3: The Technicals Support the Bulls

For those watching the chart, the near-term setup looks increasingly bullish. The Trade Desk shares have been testing a long-term support zone around the $38-40 mark that dates back to 2020, and each time, as in previous years, buyers have stepped in. The stock’s relative strength index (RSI) readings are starting to move up out of extremely oversold territory, suggesting that the selling pressure has started to exhaust itself, while its moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is in the process of a bullish crossover. 

That doesn’t necessarily mean a rebound will take off right away, but it does mean that technically speaking, the downside looks contained while the upside potential is significant. For patient investors, that’s usually where the best asymmetry lies.

Risks Remain, but Valuation Mitigates the Downside

Of course, there are still risks to consider. Growth has slowed from the explosive levels seen during the post-pandemic boom, and competition remains fierce. Sentiment also remains fragile, and if it were to weaken further in early 2026, it would delay any rebound.

But for a stock trading at its lowest multiple in years and a third of its former price, the risk/reward balance looks unusually attractive right now. If there’s a level at which The Trade Deck can find its footing and stage a meaningful recovery, this is going to be it.

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