Cadeler A/S (CDLR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Cadeler A/S on Multibagger Radar’s Substack by Joshua Nielsen. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CDLR. Cadeler A/S's share was trading at $17.43 as of December 1st. CDLR’s trailing and forward P/E were 4.96 and 5.27  respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Cadeler A/S (NYSE: CDLR), a $1.7 billion Danish small/mid-cap, operates as the global leader in offshore wind installation vessels following its merger with Eneti. Rather than manufacturing turbines, Cadeler builds and operates the massive self-elevating “jack-up” ships that install next-generation 15–20 MW turbines—critical assets for the accelerating offshore wind transition. Its business model resembles a “picks-and-shovels” play, benefiting from rising turbine sizes and capacity expansion targets worldwide.

The company’s performance has surged, with 2024 revenue at €249 million—up 129% year over year—and 2025 guidance of ~€500 million. EBITDA margins near 50% and Q4 net margins above 40% reflect software-like profitability in a traditionally capital-heavy industry. Each new vessel, costing roughly $350 million, is fully contracted before launch, supporting disciplined capital management and manageable leverage of about 3× 2025E EBITDA. Cadeler’s moat lies in capital intensity, credibility, and long-term contracts with leading clients such as Ørsted, Vestas, and Siemens Gamesa.

With seven operational ships and three more coming, utilization remains high and visibility stretches into the 2030s. Global demand for installation capacity far exceeds supply—particularly in the U.S. and Europe—creating sustained pricing power. Management, led by CEO Mikkel Gleerup and backed by BW Group and Scorpio, has executed flawlessly, expanding scale and profitability.

Despite strong fundamentals and a €2.5 billion order book, the stock trades around 10× forward earnings with EPS expected to grow nearly 190% in 2025. As offshore wind capacity expands, Cadeler’s combination of scarcity-driven demand, disciplined execution, and growth visibility positions it as a potential multi-bagger over the next decade.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Tidewater Inc. (TDW) by Jake LaMotta in October 2024, which highlighted the favorable supply-demand dynamics in the offshore drilling sector and Tidewater’s leverage to rising dayrates. The company’s stock has depreciated approximately by 10.91% since our coverage as sector sentiment cooled, though the thesis remains intact. Joshua Nielsen shares a similar outlook but emphasizes offshore wind installation through Cadeler’s capital-intensive moat and scarcity-driven demand.

Cadeler A/S is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 6 hedge fund portfolios held CDLR at the end of the second quarter which was 6 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of CDLR as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.