Roblox Corporation (RBLX): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Roblox Corporation on Paradox’s Substack by PARADOX INTELLIGENCE. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on RBLX. Roblox Corporation's share was trading at $93.79 as of December 1st.

Roblox Corporation (RBLX) continues to redefine the gaming landscape as both a platform for play and creation, boasting a vast ecosystem where over 380 million monthly active users—surpassing PlayStation Network and Xbox Live combined—engage across millions of user-generated worlds. Its reach is powered primarily by mobile, which accounts for roughly 80% of use, reinforcing Roblox’s dominance in cross-platform accessibility and engagement.

Alternative data ahead of Q3 2025 earnings (October 30) suggest strong momentum, with average daily concurrent users climbing from 12.39 million in Q2 to 19.48 million in Q3, a 57% quarter-over-quarter surge, signaling accelerated user retention and monetization potential. Early Q4 trends remain robust, with standout hits such as Steal a Brainrot reaching 25 million concurrent players. Complementing this, Q3 daily active users are estimated at 134 million, up 51% year-over-year, with hours engaged surpassing 27 billion in Q2 and continuing to expand through high-engagement titles like Grow a Garden.

The developer economy remains healthy, with creators earning over $1 billion from March 2024 to 2025—a 31% YoY increase—reflecting a thriving content engine that fuels sustained platform growth. External engagement indicators echo this momentum, as Roblox-related searches on TikTok have surged 480% year-over-year, underscoring its cultural relevance among younger demographics. However, regulatory scrutiny over child safety, potential bot inflation in user metrics, rising competition from Fortnite, and heavy stock-based compensation ($54 million recently) remain key risks. Overall, early indicators ahead of Q3 earnings suggest continued platform strength and deepening engagement that may drive further investor optimism.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Roblox Corporation (RBLX) by SuperJoost in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s accelerating revenue growth, record free cash flow, and expanding creator economy. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 32.52% since our coverage. This is because the thesis played out with stronger user engagement. The thesis still stands as platform fundamentals remain robust. PARADOX INTELLIGENCE shares a similar but emphasizes on alternative data-driven engagement momentum.

Roblox Corporation is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 75 hedge fund portfolios held RBLX at the end of the second quarter which was 68 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of RBLX as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.