MKL Outperforms Industry, Trades at a Discount: Time to Hold?

Shares of Markel Group Inc. MKL have rallied 16.3% in the past year, outperforming its industry, the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s growth of 9.4%, 10.4% and 15.2%, respectively. 

Markel Group has outperformed its peers, Assurant, Inc. AIZ, CNO Financial Group, Inc. CNO, and Radian Group Inc. RDN, which have risen 0.1%, 3.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in the past year.

The stock has a market capitalization of $25.85 billion. The average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 0.04 million.
Markel Group’s bottom line surpassed earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in one, the average being 19.93%.

MKL Shares are Affordable

Markel Group shares are trading at a discount compared to the industry. Its price-to-book ratio of 1.43X is lower than the industry average of 2.4X, the Finance sector’s 4.23X and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s 8.53X. Also, it has a Value Score of B.

MKL Trading Above 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages

Shares of Markel Group are trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) of $1,971.65 and $1,924.15, respectively, indicating solid upward momentum. SMA is a widely used technical analysis tool to predict future price trends by analyzing historical price data. Its share price as of Dec. 4, 2025, was $2,043.39, down 3.1% from its 52-week high of $2,109.91.

MKL’s Encouraging Growth Projections

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Markel Group’s 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 23.2%. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $15.32 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 3.4%. 

The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share implies an increase of 8.8% from the corresponding 2025 estimates.

Earnings have grown 23.1% in the past five years, better than the industry average of 10.2%.

Optimist Analyst Sentiment on MKL

One of the two analysts covering the stock has lowered estimates for 2025, while three of the four analysts have lowered the same for 2026 over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for both 2025 and 2026 earnings has moved up 4.7% and 3.9%, respectively, in the past 60 days.

Target Price Reflects Potential Upside for MKL

Based on short-term price targets offered by four analysts, the Zacks average price target is $2,081.75 per share. The average indicates a potential 1.21% upside from the last closing price.

Key Points to Note for MKL Stock

MKL has been generating improved premiums. An improvement in new business volume, strong retention levels, continued increases in rates and expanded product offerings should help the insurer retain the momentum.

Investment income should continue to benefit from an improving rate environment, higher interest income on cash equivalents, fixed maturity securities and short-term investments due to higher yields.

Markel considers strategic buyouts a prudent approach to ramp up its growth profile. Acquisitions have helped the company enhance its surety capabilities. In September 2024, it acquired a 68% ownership interest in Educational Partners International (EPI). Although MKL didn't complete any new acquisitions during the first quarter of 2025, it began consolidating Educational Partners International this quarter upon attaining the required regulatory approval following the September 2024 investment in this business. Operating revenues witnessed a seven-year (2018-2024) CAGR of 15.1%. Recent acquisitions of Valor and EPI contributed $28 million in revenues in the most recent quarter, with no contribution in the same quarter one year ago. 

Higher revenues at construction services and transportation-related businesses due to a combination of increased demand, higher prices and growth, as well as a rise in production at one of the equipment manufacturing businesses, are expected to boost operating revenues. The increase also reflected a full-year contribution from Metromont.

MKL: Distribution of Wealth

Banking on a strong capital position, the company engages in share buybacks, a prudent way to distribute wealth to its shareholders. MKL has a share repurchase program, authorized by the board, that provides for the repurchase of up to $2 billion of shares. As of Sept. 30, 2025, $1.6 billion remained available for repurchase under the program. Also, given its solid cash position of $4.1 billion, the company should not face any difficulty in meeting short-term obligations.

End Notes

Given the company's strong stock performance, solid retention levels, an improving rate environment, favorable growth estimates and solid capital position, current shareholders may find it wise to hold onto MKL shares. 

MKL also has a VGM Score of B. Stocks with a favorable VGM Score are those with the most attractive value, best growth and most promising momentum compared with peers. 

Markel Group's new business volume and prudent capital deployment present significant growth opportunities. Given Markel Group's bearish analyst sentiments surrounding the company, it is better to adopt a wait-and-see approach on this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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