A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Acadia Healthcare (ACHC). Shares have lost about 27.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Acadia Healthcare due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Acadia Beat Q3 Earnings on Growing Volumes, Lowers Guidance
Acadia Healthcare reported adjusted third-quarter earnings of 72 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.5%. However, the bottom line declined 20.9% year over year.
Total revenues increased 4.4% year over year to $851.6 million. The top line beat the consensus mark by 0.4%.
The better-than-expected quarterly results benefited from increased patient days and revenues per patient day, and higher admissions, which were partially offset by lower average length of stay and higher expenses.
ACHC’s Q3 Operations
Same-facility revenues of $827.8 million rose 3.7% year over year but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.4%. The year-over-year improvement was driven by a 1.3% increase in patient days. Admissions grew 3.3% year over year. The average length of stay fell 1.9% year over year and missed the consensus estimate by 3.2%. Revenue per patient day increased 2.3% year over year.
In the overall facility, patient days improved 1.8% year over year, while admissions grew 5.7% year over year. Revenue per patient day increased 2.5% year over year. The average length of stay declined 3.8% year over year.
Total expenses of $811.6 million rose 13.2% year over year due to higher salaries, wages and benefits, other operating expenses, supply costs and transaction and legal fees.
Total adjusted EBITDA declined 11% year over year to $173 million.
Financial Update (as of Sept. 30, 2025)
Acadia Healthcare exited the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $118.7 million, which increased from $76.3 million at the 2024-end level. It had a leftover capacity of $786.7 million under its $1 billion revolving credit facility at the third-quarter end. Total assets of $6.4 billion increased from $6 billion at the end of 2024.
Long-term debt amounted to $2.3 billion, which rose from $1.9 billion as of Dec. 31, 2024. The current portion of long-term debt was $24.4 million.
Total equity of $3.1 billion increased from the 2024-end level.
Net cash provided by operations totaled $218.2 million in the first nine months of 2025 compared with $13 million in the prior-year comparable period.
Acadia’s Share Repurchase Update
The company’s year-to-date repurchases remained at $50.4 million after the first nine months of 2025, indicating no common share buyback activity in the third quarter.
Acadia’s 2025 Guidance
Revenues are now projected to be in the range of $3.28 to $3.30 billion, down from the previous range of $3.3 billion-$3.35 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is now estimated to remain in the range of $650 to $660 million, lower than the previous guidance of $675-$700 million. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are predicted to be between $2.35 and $2.45, down from the previous guidance of $2.45 to $2.65.
Operating cash flows are now forecasted in the range of $400 to $425 million, lower than $460-$485 million guided previously. Expansion capital expenditure is now anticipated to be between $505 million and $515 million. Maintenance and IT capital expenditures are still expected to be in the range of $105-$115 million.
Management estimates bed additions between 945 and 1,076 in 2025.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -61.78% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Acadia Healthcare has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Acadia Healthcare has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Acadia Healthcare belongs to the Zacks Medical - Hospital industry. Another stock from the same industry, Universal Health Services (UHS), has gained 1.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.
Universal Health Services reported revenues of $4.5 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +13.4%. EPS of $5.69 for the same period compares with $3.71 a year ago.
Universal Health Services is expected to post earnings of $5.87 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +19.3%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.1%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for Universal Health Services. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
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Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC): Free Stock Analysis Report Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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