A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG). Shares have lost about 3.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Scotts due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Scotts Miracle-Gro's Q4 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates
Scotts Miracle-Gro reported a fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 (ended Sept. 30, 2025) loss of $151.8 million or $2.63 per share compared with a loss of $244 million or $4.29 per share in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted loss was $1.96 per share, narrower than $2.31 a year ago. The figure was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.88.
Net sales decreased around 6.6% year over year to $387.4 million and missed the consensus mark of $398.6 million.
Segment Highlights
In the fiscal fourth quarter, net sales in the U.S. Consumer division were up 0.5% year over year to $311.2 million. It missed our estimate of $360 million. The segment delivered a loss of $65.5 million, up 21% year over year.
Net sales in the Hawthorne segment tumbled 38% year over year to $49.9 million in the reported quarter. The figure beat our estimate of $27 million.
Net sales in the other segment increased 7% year over year to $26.3 million. The figure topped our estimate of $5.3 million. The segment reported a loss of $9.8 million, down 20% year over year.
Financials
At the end of the quarter, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $36.6 million, down from $71.6 million a year ago. Long-term debt was $2,049.2 million, down around 5.7% year over year.
Outlook
The company provided its full-year fiscal 2026 outlook. Key projections include low single-digit growth in U.S. Consumer net sales. The adjusted gross margin is expected to be at least 32%, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated to grow in the mid-single digits. Adjusted earnings per share are projected to be between $4.15-$4.35, and free cash flow is estimated at approximately $275 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -19.55% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Scotts has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Scotts has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Scotts belongs to the Zacks Agriculture - Operations industry. Another stock from the same industry, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), has gained 4.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.
ADM reported revenues of $20.37 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2.2%. EPS of $0.92 for the same period compares with $1.09 a year ago.
ADM is expected to post earnings of $0.85 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -25.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -13.2%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for ADM. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.
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The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG): Free Stock Analysis Report Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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