IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. Have Issued a $926 Million Warning to Wall Street for 2026

For three years, artificial intelligence (AI) has been captivating the attention and wallets of professional and retail investors. But in 2025, this game-changing technology was outdone by an even more hyped innovation: quantum computing.

Over the trailing year, quantum computing pure-play stocks IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS), and Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: QUBT) have respectively rallied 47%, 784%, 616%, and 77%. Early investors have enjoyed life-altering gains in some of these quantum computing stocks.

But a new year often means new challenges for Wall Street's hottest trends. While quantum computers offer intriguing real-world utility, IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. have issued a $926 million warning to Wall Street, which investors would be wise not to ignore.

Image source: Getty Images.

Investors are enamored with this up to $850 billion opportunity

In simple terms, quantum computing involves the use of specialized computers to solve complex problems that classical computers either can't handle or wouldn't be able to complete during our lifetime. Quantum computers offer the potential to:

• Refine and improve weather modeling and forecasting.
• Strengthen the defense capabilities of cybersecurity platforms.
• Expedite the learning curve for AI algorithms.
• Improve drug development and clinical trial success by running molecular interaction simulations.

This snippet of the real-world utility of quantum computing solutions is what has Boston Consulting Group believing this technology can create up to $850 billion in global economic value by 2040. A figure this large suggests a laundry list of companies can be winners.

Investors have also been encouraged by the early stage commercialization of quantum computers. Both Amazon's Braket service and Microsoft's Azure Quantum platform are giving their clients access to IonQ's and Rigetti's quantum computers to run simulations, among other tasks.

In mid-October, quantum computing pure-play stocks briefly went parabolic after JPMorgan Chase announced the launch of its $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative, which will see the company make direct and venture capital investments of up to $10 billion in select companies. One of the 27 sub-areas initially identified by JPMorgan Chase is quantum computing.

While investors might be hoping for a multi-year run-up in quantum computing stocks, similar to what AI stocks have experienced, they could be in for a rude awakening in 2026.

Image source: Getty Images.

Quantum computing insiders are sounding a warning to Wall Street

Although headwinds tend to be bountiful with next-big-thing trends, one of the more glaring red flags for quantum computing pure-play stocks in the new year is the actions of insiders.

An insider is a high-ranking executive, member of the board of directors, or a beneficial owner of 10% or more of a company's outstanding shares. These are individuals who may possess non-public information and usually know their company better than any Wall Street analyst or retail investor.

Wall Street regulations require insiders to file Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission within two business days of purchasing or selling shares of their company. This also includes exercising option contracts. While these filings are made for the sake of transparency, they can sometimes tell quite a story.

According to Form 4 filings over the trailing-five-year period, as of Dec. 5, quantum computing stock insiders have been avid sellers of their respective shares:

• IonQ: $574,213,508 in net-selling activity from insiders
• Rigetti Computing: $54,109,968 in net-selling activity from insiders
• D-Wave Quantum: $264,208,909 in net-selling activity from insiders
• Quantum Computing Inc.: $33,245,464 in net-selling activity from insiders

Collectively, this amounts to nearly $926 million in net sales.

If there's a silver lining to this data, it's that not all selling by insiders is inherently bad. Since most executives and board members are compensated in the form of common stock and options, they'll often sell some of their holdings to cover their federal and/or state tax liability. Instances where insiders sell for tax purposes, or to diversify their investment portfolios, aren't necessarily worrisome.

Perhaps even more damning for this quartet of pure-play stocks has been the lack of insider buying. Whereas several reasons exist to sell shares of a publicly traded company, there's only one reason to buy: an expected increase in the share price.

While IonQ has had a couple of small insider purchases by executives and directors totaling approximately $3.2 million over the last five years, Rigetti Computing has just one insider purchase during this period for $625,000, and D-Wave Quantum has a trio of small purchases totaling roughly $309,000. Quantum Computing Inc. has no insider purchases.

If insiders are unwilling to buy shares of their own company, it might indicate that they don't believe their shares are a bargain.

Based on the trailing-12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of pure-play quantum computing stocks, this hyped trend is historically pricey. Even if all four of these companies were to deliver annual sales growth of 100% through 2028, they'd all have P/S ratios well above 30, which has been the arbitrary line in the sand that's alerted investors to bubbles over the last three decades.

Furthermore, the barrier to entry in quantum computing looks to be lower than you might realize. With pure-play stocks losing money hand over fist, and some cash-rich members of the "Magnificent Seven" already developing quantum processing units, a clear path exists for all four of these highfliers to lose their first-mover advantage.

Insider activity in IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. provides yet another reason to be highly skeptical of these stocks in 2026.

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Sean Williams has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, IonQ, JPMorgan Chase, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.