UUUU Stock Declines 28% YTD: Buying Opportunity or Red Flag?

Energy Fuels UUUU has declined 28.3% year to date compared with the non-ferrous mining industry’s 31.9% fall. The Zacks Basic Materials sector has slipped 10.7%, while the S&P 500 has risen 7.8% in the same timeframe.

Looking at UUUU peer performances - Centrus Energy LEU has gained 56% year to date, while Cameco CCJ has dipped 15.7%, still faring better than Energy Fuels. Meanwhile, Uranium Energy UEC has underperformed Energy Fuels with a year-to-date decline of 33%.

UUUU Stock’s YTD Performance Vs Industry, Sector & S&P 500

The UUUU stock is currently trading below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting a bearish trend.

Energy Fuels Shares Trade Below 50-Day & 200-Day SMAs

Given the significant pullback in UUUU shares, investors might be tempted to snap up the stock. But is this the right time? Let us dig deeper to find out.

Downtrend in Uranium Prices to Weigh on UUUU

Uranium prices are currently at $64 per pound, the lowest in 18 months and down 11.8% so far this year. Prices have been impacted by adequate supply amid uncertain demand. U.S. President Trump excluded Russia from major reciprocal tariffs, supporting earlier signals of his intent to strengthen economic ties with the country. This move has fueled speculation that existing sanctions on Russian nuclear fuel imports might be lifted.

Energy Fuels’s expected ore production for 2025 is 730,000-1,170,000 pounds of uranium from the Pinyon Plain, La Sal and Pandora mines. It anticipates selling between 200,000 and 300,000 pounds of uranium in 2025 under its existing long-term contracts with utilities.

The company stated that it may sell uranium in the spot market in the year. However, considering the downtrend in prices so far, this seems unlikely.

Energy Fuels Witnesses Downward Estimate Revisions

Estimates for UUUU have undergone negative revisions, as shown in the chart below.

Energy Fuels is expected to incur a loss of 21 cents per share in 2025, in contrast to the earlier-expected earnings of 11 cents per share. The estimate for the year’s revenues is pegged at $72.3 million, suggesting a 7.5% year-over-year decline.

The estimate for 2026 revenues is $180.2 million, implying a 149% year-over-year upsurge. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 6 cents. This suggests that 2026 will be the company’s first year of profit since it started trading on the NYSE in December 2013.

UUUU’s Valuation Looks Stretched

Energy Fuels is trading at a forward price/sales of 8.38X, well above the industry average of 2.43X. The company’s Value Score of F suggests that the stock is not so cheap and indicates a stretched valuation at this moment.

Meanwhile, Centrus Energy and Cameco are cheaper alternatives than UUUU, with price/sales of 7.2X and 2.41X, respectively. Uranium Energy is trading at a higher P/S of 22.48.

Energy Fuels Boasts Debt-Free Balance Sheet

As of Dec. 31, 2024, UUUU had $170.90 million of working capital, including $38.60 million of cash and cash equivalents, $80.85 million of marketable securities, and $37.76 million in trade and other receivables.

Both Energy Fuels and Uranium Energy have debt-free balance sheets. This is commendable compared with Cameco’s debt-to-capital ratio of 0.17 and Centrus Energy’s 0.77.

UUUU’s Long-Term Story Intact

The increasing demand for uranium and REEs in clean energy technologies, and the push for supply chains independent of China, is a growth opportunity for UUUU. Considering that the White Mesa Mill in Utah is the only U.S. facility able to process monazite and produce separated REE materials, this gives the company an edge. 

Backed by its debt-free balance sheet, Energy Fuels is ramping up uranium production while developing significant REE capabilities. In sync with this strategy, the company acquired Base Resources Limited in October 2024, gaining access to the promising Toliara Mineral Sand Project. In addition to REE metals, this strengthens UUUU’s potential to become a major producer of titanium and zirconium minerals.

Taking UUUU’s current production levels and development pipeline into account, the company has the potential to produce 6 million pounds of uranium per year.

Our Final Take on Energy Fuels Stock

Considering the premium valuation, decline in uranium prices, downward earnings revisions activity and projected loss for the current year, selling the UUUU stock would be prudent at present. The Energy Fuels stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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