Is AU Poised for Another Robust Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA Increase?

AngloGold Ashanti plc AU has been delivering year-over-year increases in its adjusted EBITDA throughout 2025, driven by higher production volumes, cost discipline and elevated gold prices. AU’s adjusted EBITDA surged 121% year over year to  $4.12 billion in the first nine months of 2025. The company has already surpassed the adjusted EBITDA of $2.75 billion reported for 2024.

AU’s gold production increased 20% year over year in the first nine months of 2025 to 2.292 million ounces. The upside was driven by strong contributions from the recently acquired Sukari mine, which has already established itself as a top producer in the company’s portfolio. The rally was also aided by improved performances at key assets, including Obuasi, Siguiri, Geita and Cerro Vanguardia.

Another driver of the company's increased EBITDA performance is the company’s Full Asset Potential Program, which has been driving cost efficiencies and insulating operations against inflation. The company has initiated the Full Asset Potential Refresh phase across its assets.

Backed by the solid production performance in the first nine months, the company affirmed its 2025 production guidance of 2.900-3.225 million ounces, suggesting year-over-year growth of 9-21%. An upbeat outlook and a strong first nine-month performance have set an optimistic tone for the fourth quarter.

AngloGold Ashanti Peers’ EBITDA Performance

Newmont Corporation NEM reported adjusted EBITDA of $8.93 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 58.8%. Newmont reported a 106% year-over-year surge in adjusted EBITDA in 2024 to $8.67 billion.

Agnico Eagle Mines’ AEM first nine months’ adjusted EBITDA increased 67% in a year to $5.60 billion, driven by higher revenues from mining operations. Agnico Eagle Mines reported 45.1% growth in 2024 to $4.96 billion.

AU’s Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates

AngloGold Ashanti’s stock has skyrocketed 281.3% in the past  year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 146% surge. During this time, the Basic Materials sector has risen 30.6%, whereas the S&P 500 has grown 19.4%.

AngloGold Ashanti is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 13.14X, slightly discounted compared with the industry average of 13.61X. The stock has a Value Score of B.

Meanwhile, Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines are trading higher at 13.95X and 17.77X, respectively.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AngloGold Ashanti’s 2025 sales is $9.67 billion, indicating a 66.9% year-over-year jump. The consensus mark for the year’s earnings is pegged at $5.51 per share, indicating a year-over-year upsurge of 149.3%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 sales implies a 13.3% year-over-year dip. The same for earnings suggests growth of 16.8%.
EPS estimates for 2025 have moved 3.8% north over the past 60 days, while the same for 2026 has moved up 29.6% over the past 60 days.

AU currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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