Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Moderna, Inc. on Alpha Talon Investment Research’s Substack by AT Investment Research. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MRNA. Moderna, Inc.'s share was trading at $29.92 as of December 15th. MRNA’s trailing P/E was 7.06 according to Yahoo Finance.

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. MRNA’s strategy from 2025–2030 emphasizes capital efficiency and asset optimization as the company transitions from pandemic-driven expansion to disciplined operations. With manufacturing largely built out, annual CapEx will normalize at $250–300 million, targeting automation, predictive maintenance, and modular production.

Facility utilization is expected to rise to 70–80% by 2026–2027, driving gross margins toward 45–50% by 2028 and boosting free cash flow. Geographic diversification through smaller hubs in Europe and Asia aims to serve regional markets efficiently and mitigate supply chain risks, while net PP&E remains flat at $2.1–2.3 billion, reflecting a shift from idle capacity to fully utilized production engines across flu, RSV, and oncology vaccines.

Financial guidance frames 2025 as a transitional year, with revenue projected at $1.5–2.5 billion and cash-based operating costs around $5.1 billion, reflecting restructuring efforts including workforce reduction and manufacturing optimization. Operating losses and negative free cash flow are expected through 2026, underscoring the slow path to recovery.

Moderna’s valuation and mRNA platform make it a potential acquisition target, with strategic interest likely from Pfizer, Merck, or GSK. A plausible M&A range is $30–50 per share, rising with successful Phase III results or commercial validation.Base-case projections see revenue expanding to $8–10 billion by 2030, with operating margins normalizing at 20–25% and a fair value of $65–70 per share.

Bear-case scenarios reflect stagnant respiratory uptake and delayed oncology success, valuing the stock at $25–35. Bull-case upside, driven by oncology and latent-virus breakthroughs, could push valuations to $90–100 per share. Investors should approach Moderna as a contrarian long: accumulation through 2025–2026, reinforcement during 2027–2028 as cash flow stabilizes, and monetization or M&A optionality by 2029–2030. Risks span clinical, commercial, financial, technological, policy, and strategic execution, but strong cash reserves, validated IP, and manufacturing scale provide a clear downside floor.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Moderna, Inc. by YouAlwaysHaveAChoice in February 2025, which highlighted event-driven catalysts, institutional accumulation, and technical indicators suggesting near-term upside. The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 10.09% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as fundamental upside remains from vaccine demand. AT Investment Research shares a bullish but emphasizes long-term capital efficiency, asset optimization, and M&A optionality.

Moderna, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 42 hedge fund portfolios held MRNA at the end of the third quarter which was 39 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of MRNA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MRNA and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.