Knight-Swift to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 23, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KNX’s first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 19.3% in the past 90 days to 25 cents per share. However, the consensus mark implies a 108.3% rise from the year-ago actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate lies below the company's guided range of 29-33 cents.

Knight-Swift has an unimpressive earnings surprise history, having lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters (outpaced in the remaining two quarters), the average miss being 8.96%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for KNX this earnings season.

Q1 Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Knight-Swift’s first-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $1.81 billion, indicating a 0.9% year-over-year decline. The top-line performance in the first quarter is expected to have been hurt by inflationary pressure, high interest rates, tariff-related uncertainties, weak freight demand and supply-chain disruptions.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Truckload revenues is pegged at $1.21 billion, almost in line with our estimate. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Less-Than-Truckload revenues is pegged at $337 million, indicating a 19.5% increase from the first quarter of 2024 reported number. Our estimate is pegged at $334.2 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Logistics revenues is pegged at $134 million, indicating a 5.5% increase from the first quarter of 2024 reported number. Our estimate for Logistics revenues is pegged at $137.3 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Intermodal revenues is pegged at $100 million, indicating a 13.6% increase from the first quarter of 2024 reported number. Our estimate for Intermodal revenues is pegged at $107.3 million.

On the flip side, high costs related to driver wages, equipment, maintenance, fuel, and other expenses continue to weigh on Knight-Swift’s bottom line. KNX’s financial metrics indicate that its leverage is elevated, which is a massive negative for its shareholders.

What Our Model Says About KNX

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for KNX this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Knight-Swift has an Earnings ESP of -2.25% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) at present.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. price-eps-surprise | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Quote

Highlights of Q4

Knight-Swift's fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings of 36 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 33 cents and improved more than 100% year over year. KNX’s bottom line benefited from the closure of the third-party insurance business in the first quarter of 2024 (as this business generated a $71.7 million operating loss in the fourth quarter of 2023) and a 5.8 percentage point decrease in the effective tax rate. The reported figure met the higher end of the guided range of 32-36 cents.

Total revenues of $1.86 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.89 million and declined 3.5% year over year. Revenues, excluding truckload and LTL fuel surcharge, fell 0.9% year over year to $1.67 billion.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.

C.H. RobinsonCHRW has an Earnings ESP of +1.37% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. CHRW is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 30. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.94% upward in the past 90 days. CHRW’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 21.7%. 

Expeditors International of WashingtonEXPD has an Earnings ESP of +3.76% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. EXPD is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 6.  

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.94% upward in the past 90 days. EXPD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 11.6%.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research