Lumentum Stock Rides on Strong AI Push: A Sign of More Upside?

Lumentum LITE is riding on strong AI demand, which is driving the need for its laser chips and optical transceivers inside data centers, as well as in the interconnect and long-haul networks that bring them together. LITE estimates that more than 60% of its current revenues come from AI infrastructure and cloud, driven by strong demand from hyperscalers.

Strong demand for laser chip, laser assembly and line subsystem product lines used in data centers, as well as for data center interconnect and long-haul applications, is driving the components business. Laser chip shipment is anticipated to remain strong due to the expected addition of 40% more capacity over the next few quarters at the indium phosphide-based wafer fab.

LITE has evolved as a leading provider of optics for scaling AI. Cloud transceivers, optical circuit switches and co-packaged optics are long-term growth drivers for the systems segment. Lumentum expects sustainable growth from cloud transceivers (flat in the first quarter of 2026) over the next four to five quarters, beginning in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Rapid manufacturing expansion in Thailand bodes well for cloud transceivers and optical circuit switches.

The company expects roughly half of the sequential growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 to be driven by component products serving cloud applications. The other half is expected from LITE’s systems products serving cloud customers, driven by growing demand for high-speed optical transceivers for data center applications. Lumentum expects fiscal second-quarter revenues between $630 million and $670 million, while earnings are anticipated to be $1.30-$1.50 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is currently pegged at $652.4 million, suggesting 62.2% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

LITE Faces Tough Competition in AI Space

Lumentum competes against Ciena CIEN and Marvell Technology MRVL in the AI infrastructure space. Ciena is a leading provider of optical networking equipment, software and services, while Marvell Technology is a competitor in optical networking for AI and data center applications.

Ciena is benefiting from improvements in customer spending owing to the rapid proliferation of AI applications. CIEN continues to benefit from higher network traffic and demand for bandwidth, which are mainly attributed to increasing AI technology use cases. Ciena’s Cloud and Service Provider customers are prioritizing network investments to support AI-driven traffic growth, highlighting long-term opportunities for its Systems and Interconnects businesses. Ciena lifted its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to $5.7-$6.1 billion, nearly 24% growth at the midpoint.

Marvell Technology is gaining from the adoption of scale-up switches that connect AI accelerators within and across racks, requiring multi-terabit bandwidth and ultra-low latency. These switches will support both open standard Ethernet and UALink fabrics, leveraging Marvell Technology’s low-latency SerDes and Ethernet switch IP. MRVL announced that leading AI and data center infrastructure companies are now adopting its Alaska PCIe 6 retimer product line to support next-generation accelerated AI infrastructure.

LITE’s Share Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Lumentum shares have appreciated 359.4% in a year, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s return of 21.6%.

LITE Stock Outperforms Sector

The LITE stock is trading at a premium, with a forward 12-month price/sales of 9.29X compared with the Zacks Communications Components industry’s 3.75X. Lumentum has a Value Score of F.

LITE Valuation

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at $12.59 per share, up 3.2% over the past 30 days. Lumentum reported earnings of $2.99 per share in fiscal 2025.
 

Lumentum Holdings Inc. Price and Consensus

Lumentum Holdings Inc. price-consensus-chart | Lumentum Holdings Inc. Quote

Lumentum currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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