A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Deere (DE). Shares have lost about 0.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Deere due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Deere Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates, Sales Up Y/Y on Lower Volume
Deere has reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 (ended Nov. 2, 2025) earnings of $3.93 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.96. The bottom line decreased 14% from the prior-year quarter as gains from higher volumes were offset by higher production costs and tariff impacts.
Net sales of equipment operations (comprising Agriculture, and Turf, Construction and Forestry) were $10.6 billion, up 14% year over year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.99 billion. Total net sales (including financial services and others) were $12.4 billion, up 11% year over year.
The cost of sales in the reported quarter was up 21% year over year to $7.94 billion. Total gross profit decreased 2.7% year over year to $4.45 billion. Selling, administrative and general expenses rose 3.6% to $1.28 billion from the prior-year period.
Total operating profit (including financial services) dipped 7% year over year to $1.35 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter.
DE’s Segmental Performances in Q4
The Production & Precision Agriculture segment’s sales rose 10% year over year to $4.74 billion on higher shipment volumes and favorable price realization. The figure beat our model’s estimated revenues of $4.27 billion for the quarter. Operating profit decreased 8% year over year to $604 million, on higher production costs and tariff impact, offset by higher shipment volumes/sales mix. Our estimate for the segment’s operating profit was $714 million.
Small Agriculture & Turf sales increased 7% to $2.46 billion from the year-earlier quarter, which came in higher than our projected sales of $2.11 billion on increased volumes. Operating profit slumped 89% year over year to $25 million on higher warranty expenses, tariffs and production costs. The figure beat our estimate of operating profit of $124 million for the segment.
Construction & Forestry sales were $3.38 million, up 27% year over year, on higher volumes. Our estimate for the segment’s revenues was $3.3 billion. Operating profit increased 6% year over year to $237 million as higher shipment volumes or sales mix were partially offset by increased production costs due to higher tariffs. Our estimate for the segment’s operating profit was $319 million.
Revenues in Deere’s Financial Services division were $1.55 billion in the reported quarter, up 2% year over year. Our estimate for the segment’s revenues was $1.56 billion. Net income of Deere’s Financial Services division was $293 million in the reported quarter compared with $173 million in the prior-year quarter. The upside was due to favorable financing spreads and a lower provision for credit losses.
Deere’s Cash & Debt Position
DE reported cash and cash equivalents of $8.28 billion at the end of fiscal 2025 compared with $7.32 billion at the end of fiscal 2024. The cash flow from operating activities was $7.5 billion in fiscal 2025 compared with $9.23 billion in the prior fiscal.
At the end of the quarter, the long-term borrowing was $43.5 billion compared with $43.23 billion at the end of fiscal 2025.
DE’s Fiscal 2025 Guidance
Deere reported fiscal 2025 earnings of $18.50 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $18.53. The bottom line decreased 28% from the prior fiscal.
Net sales of equipment operations came in at $38.9 billion, down 13% year over year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $38.3 billion. Total net sales were $46 billion, down 11.7% year over year.
DE’s Fiscal 2026 Guidance
Deere expects net income for fiscal 2026 between $4.00 billion and $4.75 billion.
Net sales for Production & Precision Agriculture are expected to decrease 5-10% year over year. Sales of Small Agriculture & Turf are expected to rise 10%. Sales of Construction & Forestry are projected to increase 10%. The Financial Services segment’s net income is expected to be $830 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -27.39% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Deere has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Deere has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Deere & Company (DE): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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