Will Dollar Tree's Strategic Initiatives and Store Expansions Aid?

Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR is taking smart steps to enhance the in-store experience and drive sustainable growth. Its strategic initiatives, particularly the ongoing store conversions and targeted expansions, are paying off, as reflected in improved same-store sales (comps). These efforts are drawing higher customer traffic while also lifting average basket size, underscoring the effectiveness of Dollar Tree’s focus on assortment breadth, value perception and store format optimization.

The company is experiencing broad-based performance across categories, with comps up 3.5% for consumables and 4.8% for discretionary during the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Discretionary categories accelerated in the fiscal third quarter, with outstanding performances in party and home decor. Consumables were steady, driven by household cleaning, personal care, snacks and cookies. Seasonal performance remained strong, mainly toward the end of the quarter. DLTR’s merchandising strategy also appears encouraging. 

Dollar Tree has unveiled its partnership with Uber Eats, which reflects its strategic move in meeting customers’ needs and facilitating the way they want to shop. This collaboration provides access to Uber Eats' 25 million customers, which is a newer demographic that the DLTR has yet to completely tap into. The company remains excited by the initial response to the launch. 

DLTR’s expanded assortment offers highly compelling products with agility in managing tariffs and other cost headwinds, all while providing customers with great discovery at reasonable prices. This offers great resilience in the times of ever-increasing agility of its organization. The company is executing on growth, productivity and cost control.

The company’s 3.0 stores are either new or converted stores that offer expanded multi-price assortments. The 3.0 portfolio has been outperforming its other store formats in higher traffic, ticket, comps and discretionary mix. DLTR is on track to have about half of its store base converted by year-end. Other formats are 2.0, which have a smaller multi-price assortment focused on a single aisle and 1.0 stores, which have above 95% of the items priced at $1.25. The aforesaid initiatives are anticipated to continue to boost comps and overall profitability.

DLTR’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Dollar Tree’s shares have gained 22.1% in the past six months compared with the industry’s 2.3% growth.

From a valuation standpoint, DLTR is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.73X compared with the industry’s average of 29.91X.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DLTR’s fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) indicates year-over-year growth of 12.2% and 17.1%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimate for 2025 and 2026 has moved north in the past 30 days.

Dollar Tree currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Eye These Other Solid Picks in Retail

American Eagle Outfitters AEO, a specialty retailer of casual apparel, accessories and footwear, currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Eagle Outfitters’ current financial-year sales indicates growth of 2.4% from the year-ago figure. URBN delivered an average earnings surprise of 35.1% in the last four quarters.

Boot Barn BOOT operates as a lifestyle retail chain offering footwear, apparel and accessories, carrying a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. BOOT delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.4%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boot Barn’s current fiscal-year sales indicates growth of 16.2% from the year-ago period’s reported figure.

Allbirds, Inc. BIRD, a lifestyle brand, currently has a Zacks Rank of 2. The company delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.5%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BIRD’s current financial-year EPS indicates growth of 19.9% from the year-ago figure. 

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research