What Falling Interest Rates Mean for Truist's Net Interest Income

Truist Financial Corporation TFC has been witnessing a steady rise in its net interest income (NII) over the past few years. While NII declined in 2021 and 2024, the metric witnessed a five-year (2019-2024) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14%, driven by decent loan demand, merger deals and high rates. The upward momentum for NII continued in the first nine months of 2025.

Going forward, falling interest rates and easing lending standards are expected to brighten the outlook for TFC’s NII expansion. Following the initial easing in 2024 and three subsequent rate cuts in 2025, interest rates now stand at 3.50-3.75%. With lower rates, funding costs will stabilize gradually, supporting increased borrowing, which means more loan volumes. Thus, while lower rates might impact margins to some extent, growth in NII will continue, supported by increased loan balances.

Also, declining rates reduce the burden of carrying debt, often improving borrower solvency and easing payment stress. This dynamic tends to lower delinquency rates and reduce charge-offs.

Management anticipates NII in fourth-quarter 2025 to be up 2% sequentially, primarily driven by continued loan growth, higher client deposits and lower deposit costs amid rate cut expectations. Also, the net interest margin (NIM) is expected to expand sequentially in the quarter.

Looking to 2026, while expectations are mixed, they broadly suggest moderate easing over the course of the year. Thus, supported by stabilizing deposit costs, solid economic growth and increasing loan demand, TFC’s NII expansion is expected to continue. We expect NII to grow 2.3%, 4% and 2.7% in 2025, 2026 and 2027, respectively.

How Are TFC’s Peers Faring in Terms of NII?

Truist’s peers, including Fifth Third Bancorp FITB and U.S. Bancorp USB, are similarly influenced by the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.

Fifth Third has maintained solid momentum in NII growth, seeing a five-year (ending 2024) CAGR of 4.2%. In the first nine months of 2025, the bank’s NII (tax-equivalent basis) rose 6.2% year over year to $4.4 billion. Fifth Third’s NIM also increased year over year to 3.10% from 2.88%. The company’s adjusted NII is expected to grow 5.5-6.5% in 2025 from $5.6 billion in 2024, supported by stabilizing funding costs and steady loan growth.

U.S. Bancorp has witnessed consistent NII growth, registering a five-year (2019-2024) CAGR of 4.4%, with the upward momentum continuing in the first nine months of 2025. The company’s NII (tax-equivalent basis) was $4.251 billion, up 2% from the same period a year ago. As of Sept. 30, 2025, U.S. Bancorp’s NIM stood at 2.75%, slightly higher than the 2.74% reported a year earlier.

Looking ahead, stabilizing funding costs, loan growth and investment portfolio repositioning are expected to support NII expansion.

TFC’s Price Performance & Zacks Rank

Shares of Truist have risen 13.2% in the past six months compared with the industry's growth of 18.2%.

The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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