Will NVO's Wegovy Pill Approval for Obesity be a Game Changer in 2026?

Last month, Novo Nordisk NVO announced the FDA approval of the Wegovy pill (once-daily oral semaglutide 25 mg) to reduce excess body weight and maintain weight reduction in the long term, and to reduce the risk of major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events.

The approval of oral Wegovy marks a major milestone for Novo Nordisk, making it the first GLP-1 RA approved in an oral form for weight management. Compared with injectable formulations, the pill offers a far more convenient administration option, significantly lowering treatment burden and potentially improving patient adherence. The drug is already approved in the United States as a once-weekly injection for reducing major CV events, easing HFpEF symptoms, and relieving osteoarthritis-related knee pain in obesity.

Despite the wide label of the injectable version, Wegovy’s sales momentum slowed in 2025, primarily due to intensifying competition in the GLP-1 space, most notably from its arch-rival Eli Lilly LLY, as well as the widespread use of compounded semaglutide in the United States. Eli Lilly markets its GLP-1-based drug as Zepbound (tirzepatide) injection for obesity. Both Wegovy and Zepbound contribute a significant share of their respective companies’ total revenues, underscoring their importance as key drivers of growth.

However, the approval of the Wegovy pill positions Novo Nordisk for a potentially meaningful turnaround in 2026. Clinical studies showed strong, clinically meaningful weight loss that was comparable to injectable Wegovy, with a safety and tolerability profile consistent with prior semaglutide data. Management also highlighted that no approved oral GLP-1 therapy has matched its level of efficacy, reinforcing the pill’s superiority in a rapidly expanding obesity market.

Strategically, the milestone enables Novo Nordisk to secure a first-mover advantage in oral weight-loss therapy, beating Eli Lilly to market. This matters as intensifying competition from LLY has pressured NVO’s market share in recent quarters. By offering a more convenient, easy-to-use oral formulation, Novo Nordisk could shift competitive dynamics back in its favor. This could potentially reignite demand for Wegovy and reaccelerate growth that has softened in the past year.

Looking ahead, the Wegovy pill also strengthens Novo Nordisk’s longer-term obesity franchise. The company plans to initiate phase III development of its next-generation candidate amycretin for weight management in early 2026, both as an injection and oral pill. Together, the oral Wegovy launch and a deepening pipeline suggest that 2026 could mark a renewed growth phase, indicating that the pill approval may indeed be a game changer for NVO.

Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space

Eli Lilly is Novo Nordisk’s fierce competitor in the obesity space. Like NVO, Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several new molecules currently in clinical development with a range of oral and injectable medications with different mechanisms of action. These include two late-stage candidates, orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 small molecule, and retatrutide, a GGG triagonist. LLY has already filed a regulatory application for orforglipron in the United States for the treatment of obesity.

The obesity space has garnered much of the spotlight over the past year due to the sizeable and still underpenetrated market opportunity. Smaller biotech firms, like Viking Therapeutics VKTX, are also advancing GLP-1–based therapies to challenge the incumbents. Viking Therapeutics is developing its dual GIP/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Last year, VKTX started two late-stage studies evaluating the subcutaneous formulation of VK2735. While one of these studies completed enrolment in November 2025 at a rapid pace, Viking Therapeutics expects to complete enrolment in the other study by the end of this quarter.

NVO Stock’s Price, Valuation & Estimates

In the past six months, Novo Nordisk shares have plunged 24.4% against the industry’s 20.7% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.

NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500

Novo Nordisk is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 14.93 forward earnings, which is lower than 17.54 for the industry. The stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.

NVO Stock Valuation

Earnings estimates for 2025 have deteriorated from $3.67 to $3.57 per share over the past 60 days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk’s 2026 earnings estimates have declined from $3.91 to $3.51.

NVO Estimate Movement

Novo Nordisk currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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