MP Materials Trades at Premium Value: Here's How to Play the Stock

MP Materials MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 22.93X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.44X. It has a Value Score of F, which suggests that the stock appears expensive and reflects a stretched valuation at this moment.

Among peers in the rare earths space, USA Rare Earth, Inc. USAR is trading higher at 57.12X, while Lynas Rare Earths Limited LYSDY is comparatively a cheaper option, trading at 10.67X.

MP Materials shares have soared 168.7% in the past year, far outpacing the industry’s 36.9% growth, the Zacks Basic Materials sector’s 31% rise and the S&P 500’s return of 16.9%.

MP Stock's YTD Performance Against Industry, Sector & S&P 500

Over the past year, Lynas Rare Earths gained 97.4%, whereas USA Rare Earth shares moved up 10%, as shown in the chart below.

While the rally in MP Materials’ stock may tempt investors, it is important to assess the underlying drivers and their sustainability, as well as the company’s growth prospects and potential risks, before making any investment decision.

Partnerships Strengthen MP’s Growth Outlook

In July, MP Materials announced a landmark long-term agreement to supply Apple AAPL with rare earth magnets manufactured in the United States, entirely from recycled materials. Apple and MP Materials have collaborated over the past five years to develop advanced recycling technology that enables recycled rare earth magnets to be processed into material that meets Apple’s rigorous standards. Also, in July, MP Materials entered a partnership with the Department of War (DoW), which will fast-track the development of a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain.

In November, MP Materials announced that it partnered with the DoW to establish a joint venture with the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) to develop a rare earth refinery in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This will leverage Saudi Arabia’s competitive energy base, solid infrastructure and the untapped rare earth resources.

MP Continues to Report Solid Production Numbers 

MP Materials is demonstrating strong growth in rare earth production, with back-to-back solid quarterly performances. Production of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) reached 721 metric tons in the third quarter of 2025, a 51% jump from the year-ago quarter. This outscored MP Materials’ previous record NdPr production of 597 metric tons in the second quarter.

The company’s NdPr production amounts to 1,881 MT for the first nine months of 2025, 114% higher than the prior year. MP has already surpassed its 2024 NdPr production of 1,294 MT. The company has been ramping up its NdPr production since it started production in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Rare Earth Oxide (REO) production fell 4% year over year to 13,254 metric tons (MT) in the third quarter. Despite this, it was the second-highest quarter on record in the company’s history. MP Materials reported REO production of 13,145 metric tons in the second quarter of 2025.

MP’s Earnings Estimates See Downward Revision Activity

The company’s strategy of producing and selling more separated products at Mountain Pass and the ramp-up of output of magnetic precursor products are expected to have led to higher costs in 2025 and likely lead to a full-year loss. The company, however, expects a return to profitability in fourth-quarter 2025 and 2026. With the DoW’s Price Protection Agreement commencing on Oct. 1, 2025, it will provide revenue stability and offset margin pressure. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2025 revenues projects a 12.75% year-over-year growth in 2025, and a further 83% rise in 2026. The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is pegged at a loss of 21 cents per share. The estimate for 2026 stands at earnings of 68 cents, implying a turnaround.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP’s fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings have both moved south over the past 60 days.

MP Materials Seems Well-Positioned for Long-Term Growth

The company operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only rare earth mining and processing site of scale in North America. These materials are essential for a wide range of existing and emerging clean-tech technologies, including electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, drones and defense systems. With China dominating the global supply, the United States is increasingly prioritizing the development of domestic rare earth capabilities.

The multi-billion-dollar investment package and long-term commitments from DoW provide MP Materials the opportunity to capitalize on this. MP will construct the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility), which will take total U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturing capacity to 10,000 metric tons, and cater to both defense and commercial sectors. The $500-million agreement with Apple marks a transformative step for MP, launching its recycling platform and scaling up its magnet production business.

Our Verdict on MP Stock

MP Materials’ unique positioning within the U.S. rare earth supply chain, continued operational ramp-up, and high-profile partnerships with Apple and the DoW underscore a compelling long-term growth narrative. Existing shareholders may benefit from staying invested to capture these long-term fundamentals.However, new investors can wait for a better entry point, considering the premium valuation and recent downward revisions to earnings estimates.

MP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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