Analysts Warn of Potential Demand "Air-Pocket" for Rivian (RIVN) in 2026

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) is one of the AI Stocks Making Waves on Wall Street. On January 2, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco reiterated an Underweight rating on the stock with a $12.00 price target. The firm remains cautious on RIVN amid tech transition and policy shifts that are likely to challenge near-term demand.

Morgan Stanley noted how Rivian has delivered 9,745 vehicles in 4Q25, which represents a 31% year-over-year decline. The figure is slightly above the firm’s estimate of 9,525 but below the consensus forecast of 10,100 vehicles.

The company produced and delivered 42,284 and 42,247 vehicles, a 15% and 18 year-over-year decline respectively, which is in line with its guidance. Analysts note how investors will now be focusing on 4Q25 earnings and 2026 guidance, set to report on February 12, 2026. Particular attention is going to be on the production ramp of the R2 model.

Moreover, 2026 demand is seen through a cautious lens due to the expiration of the EV tax credit and the evolving tech hardware roadmap. This includes the introduction of LiDAR in late 2026 for advanced levels of autonomy.

“We maintain our cautious view on demand in 2026 following the expiration of the EV tax credit and the evolving tech hardware roadmap, with the introduction of LiDAR in late 2026 for advanced levels of autonomy, which may yield a demand air-pocket for most of 2026 as customers wait for RIVN’s latest gen tech platform.”

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) is an automaker that creates and manufactures electric vehicles, as well as software and services.

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