Transocean Gains 43% in 6 Months: How to Play the Stock?

In the past six months, Transocean Ltd.’s RIG shares have rallied 43.4%, outperforming the Oil & Gas Drilling sub-industry’s gain of 14.5% and the broader oil and energy sector's rise of 3.6%. Peer comparison further highlights the strength, as Precision Drilling Corporation PDS and Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. PTEN lagged behind with gains of 36.1% and 1.5%, respectively, while Nabors Industries Ltd. NBR outperformed with a significant surge of 77.2%.

Six-Month Highs and Lows: A Snapshot

When a stock delivers a sharp positive performance in just six months, it naturally captures investor attention and raises an important question: Is there more upside ahead? Transocean, a leading global provider of offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas companies, specializing in technically demanding deepwater and harsh-environment drilling, has emerged as a notable turnaround story, strengthening investor confidence.

For shareholders, the key consideration is whether to stay invested to ride further momentum or reassess valuations after the sharp run-up. A closer look at Transocean’s financial position, industry tailwinds and long-term growth prospects can help determine whether holding the stock remains the most prudent course of action.

What’s Working in Favor of Transocean Stock?

Accelerated Deleveraging Improves Financial Flexibility: Transocean reduced gross debt by about $1.2 billion versus scheduled maturities, materially improving its balance sheet. Management emphasized that this was achieved through disciplined capital market transactions and strong cash flow, lowering refinancing risk and easing investor concerns around leverage. During the third quarter of 2025, RIG reported a strong debt to capitalization of 37.5% against its peer Nabors Industries, which reported it at 71.4%. However, Precision Drilling and Patterson-UTI show strength with low debt to capitalization of 29.2% and 27.3%, respectively.

High Backlog Visibility Into 2026: The company expects $3.8-$3.95 billion in 2026 contract drilling revenues, with about 89% already secured under firm contracts. This provides strong earnings visibility and limits downside risk from near-term market volatility. Its backlog visibility further got boosted on Dec. 08, 2025, when Transocean secured a six-well contract in Australia for the Deepwater Skyros that will add about $130 million to its backlog. Further, on Jan. 05, 2026, Transocean secured a rig contract and extension, adding $168 million in backlog, with Deepwater Mykonos awarded a contract by BP in Brazil and new options exercised for the Enabler in Norway.

Rising Deepwater Utilization Outlook: Management expects ultra-deepwater rig utilization to exceed 90% by late 2026 and approach 100% by 2027, driven by increasing offshore investment. Higher utilization historically supports stronger pricing power.

Fleet Rationalization Supports Margins: Retiring older, less competitive rigs sharpens Transocean’s focus on high-specification assets, aligning supply with demand and supporting healthier industry dynamics and operating margins.

What Is Behind RIG’s Underperformance?

Still-High Absolute Debt Levels: Despite recent reductions, Transocean will exit 2025 with roughly $5.9 billion in debt. This remains a heavy burden that exposes equity holders to financial risk if offshore activity weakens or costs rise unexpectedly.

Near-Term Day Rate Pressure: Management acknowledged competitive pricing, particularly for lower-specification rigs. Any prolonged softness in day rates could delay margin expansion even as utilization improves.

Exposure to Volatile Commodity Cycles: Customer capital discipline is closely tied to oil price trends. Management noted deferred near-term demand due to macro uncertainty, which could persist if energy prices weaken.

Capital-Intensive Business Model: Offshore drilling requires ongoing maintenance and capex. Even with improved cash flow, Transocean must continuously invest to keep its fleet competitive, limiting free cash flow upside in weaker markets.

Where Do Estimates Stand for RIG?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIG’s 2025 earnings is pegged at 5 cents per share, indicating 119.2% year-over-year growth. Over the past 60 days, the estimate has been revised upward by 150%.

Peer comparison highlights further strength, where the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Precision Drilling and Patterson-UTI’s 2025 earnings indicates a 27.5% and 537.5% decline, respectively. However, Nabors Industries is leading the race with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings, indicating 136.7% growth.

RIG’s Earnings Estimates and Revisions

Final Verdict on RIG Stock

The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company’s significant stock gain reflects improving fundamentals. On the positive side, the company has delivered a strong share price recovery, materially reduced debt and built solid earnings visibility with most of its 2026 revenues already secured under firm contracts. Rising ultra-deepwater utilization, fleet rationalization and a growing backlog extending into 2026 support the case for operational improvement and steadier cash flows. Compared with peers, Transocean’s stock growth exceeded that of Precision Drilling and Patterson-UTI, though Nabors Industries fared better.

However, these strengths are tempered by still-elevated absolute debt levels, ongoing capital intensity and exposure to volatile offshore spending cycles tied to oil prices. Competitive day rates, particularly for lower-spec rigs, could also delay margin expansion despite higher utilization. Taken together, Transocean appears better positioned than a year ago, but its risk profile remains meaningful. The stock is best suited for investors willing to stay invested and monitor execution, rather than aggressively adding or exiting at current levels.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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